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Report: NOVA’s high vaccine acceptance rate will likely ward off a summer surge, county adds 3 more deaths

Local death toll rises to 544

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Northern Virginia, because of its relatively high COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rate, could be largely protected from a possible surge in COVID-19 cases this summer, according to the latest report from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute.

The UVA institute, which has been analyzing the pandemic in Virginia and predicting its future, notes that Northern Virginia, including Prince William County, will likely be better protected from a surge that could result if infections from faster-spreading variants of COVID-19 occur amid a climate of waning mitigation efforts – including mask-wearing and social distancing – and stalled vaccine uptake. 

The institute now forecasts a worst-case scenario peak of 73 cases per 100,000 residents by Aug. 1. By comparison, during the mid-January peak of the pandemic in Virginia, the state saw 68 cases per 100,000 residents.

“Even under the worst-case scenario, the Northern region can expect to avoid another peak,” the latest weekly report states. “Conversely, several districts in Northwest [Virginia] could experience another surge if behavior relaxes as variants predominate.”

The state’s Northwest districts include some directly adjacent to Prince William County, including the Rappahannock-Rapidan Health District, which includes Fauquier, Culpeper, Madison, Orange and Rappahannock counties. A section of Culpeper County is included on a map of “hot spots” this week. 

Screen Shot 2021-05-08 at 1.45.57 PM.png surge diagrams

A summer surge is predicted in Virginia health districts with lower levels of COVID-19 acceptance, listed on the left, while Northern Virginia districts, on the right, are now forecast to avoid a surge, even under worst-case scenario conditions.

“Across the state, most health districts look like the Northwest districts,” the report continued. “However, Henrico, Chesterfield, Richmond, Chesapeake and Roanoke City join the Northern health districts in avoiding another surge even under the worst-case scenario.” 

Estimates for vaccine acceptance rates vary from a low of 41% in the state’s Eastern Region to 87% in the Northern Region. The results were derived from a phone survey conducted by the Virginia Department of Health and surveys conducted via Facebook. 

Screen Shot 2021-05-08 at 2.55.18 PM.png

Local cases, vaccinations

Cases in Virginia continued to decline this past week with the current per capita rate of infection at 9.3 cases per 100,000 residents, far below the January peak. 

Prince William County’s rate of COVID-19 cases per capita ticked up slightly in the past week, from 11.1 to 11.5 per 100,000, and its percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests remained steady at 5.6%.

The seven-day average for new daily cases reported across Virginia was 794 on Saturday, May 8, down about 23% from last week’s 1,032 cases.

Locally, the seven-day average of daily cases is 54, up from 52.1 last week. Cases had been on a steady decline in the county since about April 18, when they reached a high of about 116 cases per day -- a spring surge that has since receded. Average daily cases hit a high of 499 on Jan. 20, 2021, according to the VDH. 

About 43.7% of Prince William County’s population has received at least one dose of vaccine, up from 42% last week. About 31.7% of the county’s population is fully vaccinated, according to VDH data.

Northern Virginia is projected to achieve “community immunity” by late June – the earliest of any region in the commonwealth – again because of relatively strong demand for the vaccine, the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute said in its April 30 report.

Local deaths

Prince William County reported three more COVID-19 deaths over the past week, including those of one woman and two men, one of whom was in their 60s and two of whom were in their 70s.

Local hospitalizations

There were 14 local hospitalizations reported in the past week, up from 12 the week before. One young person between the ages of 10 and 19 was hospitalized along with two residents in their 30s; four in their 40s; one in their 50s; one in their 60s; four in their 70s; and one age 80 or older, according to VDH data.

The number of people hospitalized across the state for COVID-19 on Saturday, May 8, dipped to 799, down about 10% from the 885 hospitalized last Saturday, May 1.

Of those hospitalized, 203 were in intensive care units, down from 224 last week. There were 116 on ventilators, down from 128 last week. About 77% of the state's intensive care unit beds are occupied, while 29% of the state's ventilators are in use, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

Percent-positivity rate

The statewide percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests was 4.5% this week, down from 4.7% last week. Prince William’s 5.6% rate was third in the Northern Virginia region, behind the Rappahannock Rapidan Health District, which had a rate of 6.5% on Saturday, and the Rappahannock Health District, which reported a rate of 8.1%.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents 

The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita ticked up to 11.5 per 100,000 residents, up from 11.1 last week. Spotsylvania County, which is in the Rappahannock Health District, is reporting the highest rate of infection per capita in Northern Virginia, with 18 per 100,000 residents, down from 18.2 last week.

Any rate of infection above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high," while case rates between 10 and 20 are considered "high," according to the RAND Corporation, which analyzes Virginia's COVID-19 metrics.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged from a low of -3.4 per 100,000 residents in the City of Manassas, which had 20 cases removed from its tally on May 5, to a high of 18 per 100,000 residents in Spotsylvania County.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 9.3, down from 12.1 last week.

ZIP Code data

Average daily cases declined or remained the same in 18 of the county's 20 ZIP Codes last week, while rising in only two.

Average daily cases rose in ZIP Codes 20109 and 22026.

Average daily cases remained the same in nine ZIP Codes: 20110, 20119, 20137, 20143, 20155, 20181, 22025, 22125 and 22134.

Average cases were down in nine local ZIP Codes: 20111, 20112, 20136, 20169, 20187, 22172, 22191, 22192 and 22193.

Sunday, May 2: Prince William's percent-positivity rate declines to 5.6%, county reports 3 more deaths

Prince William County’s rate of COVID-19 cases per capita and its percent-positivity rate declined again over the past week, with the latter falling below 6% -- to 5.6% -- for the first time since late October. 

About 42% of the county’s population has received at least one dose of the vaccine, and Northern Virginia is now projected to achieve “community immunity” by late June – the earliest in the commonwealth – because of strong demand, according to the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute.

The bad news is that the county continues to lose residents to COVID-19, with three new deaths reported since Thursday, including that of a man in his 20s. The deaths of two other Prince William County men, one in his 60s and one in his 70s, were also reported in the last few days, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

The county has now lost a total of four residents in their 20s; 23 Virginians in their 20s have died across the state since the pandemic began.

This week’s decline in cases marks a pivot from recent weeks, when COVID-19 cases in Prince William County were either in “slow growth” or stuck in a plateau, as Virginia raced to get as many people vaccinated as possible before more contagious variants of COVID-19 took hold.

Screen Shot 2021-05-02 at 1.57.16 PM.png

The B.1.1.7 variant, which originated in the United Kingdom, now accounts for about 60% of the state’s new cases, but the vaccines appear to be working against the spread, the institute said in its most recent weekly report.

“With pandemic fatigue, variants could push us back into crisis mode. For the past several weeks it has been unclear which side was ahead,” the report said. “This week, at least, it looks like our continued vigilance is giving vaccines an edge.” 

Uncertainty remains 

Despite this, vaccines still need residents’ help to win the race against COVID-19 and its variants, and demand for the vaccine appears to be slowing in some parts of the state. 

“Even with just 44% of Virginians vaccinated, and eligibility open to every Virginian age 16 and over, we are beginning to see appointments unfilled, and doses left on shelves,” the report states. “Like the race against variants, terms like vaccine hesitancy mask a simple truth: We can only win this race if we choose to. Vaccines do not work unless people take them.”

“Herd immunity” is “community immunity” 

Although data on vaccine hesitancy is still sparse, the UVA Biocomplexity Institute has developed regional estimates using currently available sources of information, which shows regional variation in vaccine acceptance. 

Screen Shot 2021-05-02 at 1.59.37 PM.png

If this persists, it will have an impact on “community immunity,” a synonym for herd immunity, that suggests herd immunity will be achieved on the regional level.

According to the analysis, Northern Virginia could reach community immunity in June or July, while other regions may not reach it at all this year. 

Screen Shot 2021-05-02 at 2.18.41 PM.png

“The VDH and its partners are working on getting the vaccine to more communities, including accelerating outreach efforts and mobile clinics. Ultimately, however, vaccines can only win this race if we choose to take them. Virginia's health is in our hands,” the weekly report notes.

Local cases

The seven-day average for new daily cases reported across Virginia was 1,032 on Saturday, May 1, down nearly 15% from the seven-day daily average of 1,214 on Saturday, April 24.  

That's below the mid-March seven-day daily average of 1,291 cases, the previous post-holiday low, and at about the level Virginia last saw on Oct. 23, 2020, before cases began an upward climb around the holidays.

Locally, the seven-day average of daily cases is 52.1, down 29% from last week’s 74.1. That’s the lowest daily average since Oct. 7, 2020. Average daily cases hit a high of 499 on Jan. 20, 2021, according to the VDH. 

Local hospitalizations

There were 12 local hospitalizations reported in the last week, down from 14 the week before. One local resident in their 20s was hospitalized along with two in their 30s, two in their 40s, one in their 50s, four in their 60s and two in their 70s, according to VDH data.

The number of people hospitalized across the state on Saturday, May 1, dipped to fewer than 1,000. There were 885 people in the hospital, a number Virginia hasn’t seen since Oct. 25, 2020.

The number down 15% in the past week when there were 1,046 people hospitalized on Saturday, April 24. 

Of those hospitalized, 224 were in intensive care units, down from 262 last week. There were 128 on ventilators. About 79% of the state's intensive care unit beds are occupied, while 28% of the state's ventilators are in use, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

Percent-positivity rate

On Saturday, the Prince William Health District’s percent-positivity rate was 5.6% down from the 8.3% reported last week.

Prince William no longer has highest percent-positivity rate in Northern Virginia. That distinction again goes to the Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties. It is reporting a percent-positivity rate of 7.6%, down from 8.9% last week.

Statewide, the rate was 4.7%, down from last week's 5.7%, according to VDH data.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents 

The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita dipped again this week falling from 15.8 per 100,000 residents to 11.1, a decline of about 29%.

The Rappahannock Health District is reporting the highest rate of infection per capita in Northern Virginia, with 18.2 per 100,000 residents, down from 20.7 last week.

Any rate of infection above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high," while case rates between 10 and 20 are considered "high," according to the RAND Corporation, which analyzes Virginia's COVID-19 metrics.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged from a low of 3.8 per 100,000 residents in the City of Manassas to a high of 18.3 per 100,000 residents in Spotsylvania County.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 12.1, down from 14.3 last week.

ZIP Code data: 

Average daily cases declined or remained the same in 18 of the county's 20 ZIP Codes last week, while rising in only two.

Average daily cases rose in ZIP Codes 20136 and 22172.

Average daily cases remained the same in nine ZIP Codes: 20119, 20137, 20169, 20181, 20187, 22125 and 22134, according to VDH data.

Average cases were down in 11 local ZIP Codes: 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20143, 22025, 22026, 20155, 22191, 22192 and 22193.

Saturday, April 24: Local COVID-19 cases 'plateau' but remain high, 2 more deaths reported

COVID-19 cases are said to be plateauing in the Prince William Health District after marking “slow growth” during the previous week.

Both the rate of the infection and the percent-positivity rate declined but remain in the “high” range and continue to be among the highest in Northern Virginia, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

The county lost two more residents to COVID-19 in the past week, including one man and one woman, one in their 60s and one age 80 or older. One was a resident of Prince William County and one was a resident of Manassas, according to VDH data.

The B.1.1.7 variant, which originated in the U.K., is becoming dominant in Virginia, and 44 such cases have so far been identified in the Prince William Health District, according to a new dashboard added to the VDH website on Friday.

A total of 55 COVID-19 cases in the Prince William Health District have been blamed on “variants of concern," with the B.1.1.7 variant far outnumbering the rest. Among local cases, seven have been blamed on the B.1.427 variant, which originated in California; three on the B.1.351 variant, which originated in South Africa; and one on the B.1.427 variant, which also originated in California.

Across the state, the U.K. variant (B.1.1.7) is driving a slight rise in weekly cases, according to the latest weekly report from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute.

The institute continues to warn that the commonwealth could see another surge reaching as high as an average of 100 daily cases per 100,000 residents by July 11 if residents relax precautions – including mask-wearing and social distancing – while the variants of concern take hold.

For comparison, that’s higher than the 68 average daily cases per 100,000 residents Virginia saw when cases peaked during the week of Jan. 24.

Cases

The seven-day average for new daily cases reported across Virginia was 1,214 on Saturday, April 24, down about 19% from the seven-day daily average of 1,500 last week.

That's just below the mid-March seven-day daily average of 1,291 cases, the post-holiday low, and at about the level Virginia last saw in early November, before cases began an upward climb around the holidays.

Locally, the seven-day average of daily cases is 74.1, down from 99 last week. It's still higher, however, than the post-holiday mid-March low of 67 daily cases and about where the county was in late October, before cases began climbing around the holidays. Locally, average daily cases peaked at an average of 499 on Jan. 20.

Local hospitalizations

There were 14 local hospitalizations reported in the last week, up from 12 the week before. Three residents under 30 were hospitalized, including one between the ages of 10 and 19 and two in their 20s.

Eight local residents between the ages of 30 and 59 were hospitalized in the past week, including two in their 30s, three in their 40s and three in their 50s. There were just three hospitalizations among residents age 60 and up, including one in their 60s and two in their 70s, according to VDH data.

Across the state, 1,046 people were hospitalized on Saturday, April 24, up from 1,032 people last week.

They included 262 in intensive care units, up from 248 last week, and 147 on ventilators, up five. About 77% of the state's intensive care unit beds are occupied, while 28% of the state's ventilators are in use, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

Percent-positivity rate

On Saturday, the Prince William Health District’s percent-positivity rate was 8.3%, down slightly from 8.6% reported last week.

Prince William no longer has highest percent-positivity rate in Northern Virginia. That distinction again goes to the Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties. It is reporting a percent-positivity rate of 8.9%, down from 10.7% last week.

Statewide, the rate was 5.7%, down slightly from last week's 6%, according to VDH data.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita dipped again this week falling from 21.2 per 100,000 residents to 15.8 per 100,000 residents, a decline of about 25%.

The Rappahannock Health District is reporting the highest rate of infection per capita in Northern Virginia, with 20.7 per 100,000 residents, down from 23 last week.

Any rate of infection above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high," while case rates between 10 and 20 are considered "high," according to the RAND Corporation, which analyzes Virginia's COVID-19 metrics.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged from a low of 10.7 per 100,000 residents in Manassas Park to a high of 20.7 per 100,000 residents in Stafford County.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 14.3, down from 17.6 last week.

ZIP Code data: Average daily cases declined or remained the same in 18 of the county's 20 ZIP Codes last week, while rising in only two.

Average daily cases rose in ZIP Codes 20112 and 22025.

Average daily cases remained the same in nine ZIP Codes: 20137, 20143, 20155, 20187, 22026, 22125, 22134, 22172 and 22191, according to VDH data.

Average cases were down in nine local ZIP Codes: 20109, 20110, 20111, 20119, 20136, 20169, 20181, 22192 and 22193.

Sunday, April 18: Prince William loses 2 more men in their 40s to COVID-19

The deaths of two more local residents to COVID-19 were reported on Sunday. The latest victims are two men who were in their 40s, one of whom lived in Prince William County and the other in the City of Manassas, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

The latest victims bring the number of local residents lost to COVID-19 in their 40s to 22. Across Virginia, 215 people in their 40s have died from COVID-19.

The Prince William Health District, which includes the county, Manassas and Manassas Park, has so far lost thee residents in their 20s, nine in their 30s, 22 in their 40s, 54 in their 50s, 117 in their 60s, 135 in their 70s and 195 age 80 or older to COVID-19, according to VDH data.

The Prince William Health District's COVID-19 death toll is now 536. The two deaths mark the first reported in Prince William County since April 11 and the first reported in Manassas since March 19.

Saturday, April 17: Prince William shows a 'slow growth' of COVID-19 cases, 2 new deaths

Although two key COVID-19 metrics declined over the last week in the Prince William Health District, cases in the county, Manassas and Manassas Park are showing “slow growth” and remain in the “very high” range, according to the latest report from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute.

The local health district reported no new deaths between Saturday, April 10, and Saturday, April 17, however, and there were only 12 new hospitalizations over the same period, a sharp decline from the more than 60 reported in the previous week, according to Virginia Department of Health data.

Still, the UVA Biocomplexity Institute stressed in its latest weekly report the importance of preventing a new surge in cases statewide like those currently under way in Michigan, Minnesota and Colorado.

In Northern Virginia, Prince William, Loudoun, Stafford and Spotsylvania counties are experiencing a “slow growth” in cases, while areas to the west of Prince William, including Fauquier County, are experiencing a “surge” in cases. Across the state, three health districts are experiencing a surge, up from one last week, the UVA Biocomplexity Institute’s report said.

COVID-19 cases in slow growth, surge, plateau as of April 16

The state’s predictive model shows that if Virginians relax safety precautions such as mask-wearing and social distancing as “variants of concern” take hold, the state could see cases spike this summer. 

Under the model’s worst-case scenario, Virginia could see as many as 99 cases per 100,000 residents by July 4. That's about 45% higher than the all-time peak of 68 cases per 100,000 residents that Virginia saw during the worst of the pandemic in January.

Vaccinations are “key to avoiding another surge,” the report says, noting that 41% of Virginians were either partially or fully vaccinated when the report was written.

Maryland and Washington D.C. have similar vaccination rates. States to the south and west are lagging behind, however, with West Virginia reporting that 35% of its population is at least partially vaccinated, and Tennessee, only 32%. 

“When the vaccination rates in our neighboring states are low and slowing, Virginians are also impacted, particularly those near state borders,” the report notes.

Cases

The seven-day average for new daily cases reported across Virginia was 1,500 on Saturday, April 17, down from 1,527 last week. That's up about 18% since a the most recent low seen in mid-March.

In Prince William County, the seven-day average for new daily cases as of Saturday, April 17, was 99, down from 109 last week. Still, that's up about 48% since March 13, when the seven-day average for new daily cases was 67. 

Local deaths

No new deaths were reported in the health district this past week. A total of 534 Prince William Health District residents have been lost to COVID-19 since the pandemic began, including 477 residents of Prince William County, 45 residents of Manassas and 12 residents of Manassas Park.

Local hospitalizations

Of the 12 hospitalizations reported in the last week, six were among residents under the age of 50, with three involving residents in their 20s, one of a resident in their 30s and two of residents in their 40s. Five residents in their 50s were hospitalized, along with one in their 60s. 

Across the state, 1,032 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 on Saturday, April 17, down from 1,046 last week.

They included 248 in intensive care units, down one since last week, and 142 on ventilators, up 13. About 79% of the state's intensive care unit beds are occupied, while 29% of the state's ventilators are in use, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association. Both measures are up slightly from last week.

Local cases by age

In the local health district, residents in their 20s and 30s added the most new cases last week, with both groups reporting 149. Residents in their 20s continue to report the highest total number of cases -- 9,235 -- of any age group since the pandemic began.

Young residents age 10 to 19 reported the next highest number of new cases with 128. Residents in their 50s reported 119 new cases, while kids ages 9 and under reported 79 new cases.

Residents in their 60s reported 50 new cases last week, while those in their 70s reported 13. There were no new cases among residents age 80 or older.

Percent-positivity rate

On Saturday, the Prince William Health District’s percent-positivity rate was 8.6%, a full point lower than the 9.6% reported earlier this week.

Prince William no longer has highest percent-positivity rate in Northern Virginia. That distinction goes to the Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties. It is reporting a percent-positivity rate of 10.7%.

Statewide, the rate was 6%, down slightly from last week's 6.1%, according to VDH data.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita dipped for the first time in five weeks, falling to 21.2 per 100,000 residents, down from 22.3 last week.

The Rappahannock Health District is reporting the highest rate of infection per capita in Northern Virginia, with 23.6 per 100,000 residents. 

Any rate of infection above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high," while case rates between 10 and 20 are considered "high," according to the RAND Corporation, which analyzes Virginia's COVID-19 metrics.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged from a low of 5 per 100,000 residents in Manassas Park to a high of 23.6 per 100,000 residents in the Rappahannock Health District.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 17.6, up slightly from 17.5 last week.

ZIP Code data: Average daily cases declined in half of the county's 20 ZIP Codes last week, while rising in six ZIP Codes and remaining unchanged in four. 

Average case numbers rose in six ZIP Codes, including 20109, 20111, 20119, 20136, 20143 and 22134, according to VDH data.

Average cases were down in 10 local ZIP Codes: 20110, 20112, 20155, 20169, 20187, 22025, 22026, 22172, 22191 and 22193.

Average daily cases remained the same in four local ZIP Codes: 20137, 20181, 22125 and 22192.

Tuesday, April 13: COVID-19 hospitalizations, deaths rise in Prince William, 9 more lost to the pandemic

Hospitalizations and deaths blamed on COVID-19 were up significantly in the Prince William Health District this past week even as vaccinations rose and cases plateaued, according to the Virginia Department of Health. 

The Prince William Health District is one of 11 around the state in which cases have hit a steady -- albeit high -- plateau. Both Loudoun and Fairfax counties are at a "slow growth" in new cases, according to the latest report from the University of Virginia's Biocomplexity Institute.

Still, Prince William reported 64 hospitalizations this past week and nine new deaths, according to VDH data. Both numbers are significantly higher than in recent weeks.

The Prince William Health District's seven-day daily average of hospitalizations was more than eight as of Monday, April 12. That's just under the nine average daily hospitalizations reported during the height of the post-holiday surge.

On April 7, the health district reported 23 hospitalizations in one day, the most since the spring 2020 surge of 25 daily hospitalizations reported on June 3. Hospitalizations are reported after patients are discharged.

Of the nine deaths reported this past week, two were Prince William County residents in their 20s. Since Saturday, April 3, the VDH has reported the deaths of one resident in their 40s, one in their 50s, one in their 60s and four age 80 or older. 

The recent reported losses of two local residents in their 20s brings the number of local fatalities in that age group to three. Prince William Health District officials could not say exactly when the young residents died because of privacy reasons. There is generally a lag of a few weeks in reported deaths, and the VDH reviews death certificates on an ongoing basis to determine which should be categorized as COVID-19 fatalities.

In general, the Prince William Health District is seeing a rise in hospitalizations among younger people who have not yet been eligible for the vaccine, said Sean Morris, COVID-19 epidemiologist for the Prince William Health District.

"With a rise in variant cases, along with higher vaccination rates amongst older populations,  more hospitalizations and severe illnesses have shifted towards younger populations than before," Morris said in an email.

Cases

The seven-day average for new daily cases reported across Virginia was 1,527 on Monday, April 12, up 17% since March 13 and up 4% since last week.

In Prince William County, the seven-day average for new daily cases as of Monday, April 12 was 109. That's about equal to last week's daily average of 100, but up 64% since March 13, when the seven-day average for new daily cases was 67. 

Local deaths

A total of 534 Prince William Health District residents have been lost to COVID-19 since the pandemic began, including 477 residents of Prince William County, 45 residents of Manassas and 12 residents of Manassas Park.

Local hospitalizations

Of the 64 hospitalizations reported in the last week, four were of residents in their 20s, three were of residents in their 30s and 14 were of residents in their 40s. There were 11 hospitalizations each among residents in their 50s and 60s, nine among residents in their 70s and eight among residents age 80 or older.

Across the state, 1,046 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 on Monday, up about 3% from last week. They included 249 in intensive care units, up about 7% since last week, and 129 on ventilators, up two. About 75% of the state's intensive care unit beds are occupied, while 27% of the state's ventilators are in use, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

Local cases by age

In the local health district, residents in their 20s added the most cases last week -- 137 -- and continue to have the highest total number of cases -- 9,086 -- of any age group since the pandemic began.

They are followed by residents in their 40s, who added 134 cases last week for a new total of 8,540.

Residents in their 30s added 134 new cases last week, for a total of 8,364. Those between the ages of 10 and 19 added 117 new cases, for a total of 5,492, according to VDH data.

Percent-positivity rate

On Monday, the Prince William Health District’s percent-positivity rate was 9.6%, up from 8.8% last week.

Prince William has highest percent-positivity rate in Northern Virginia this week, with the Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, following close behind with 9.4%. The statewide rate was 6.1%, down slightly from last week's 6.4%.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita rose for the fourth week in a row to 22.3 as of Saturday, April 10, up from 20.9 the week before.

Prince William's rate of infection per capita remains the highest in Northern Virginia, with Fauquier County in second place with 22.2 cases per 100,000 residents, up from 18 last week.

Any rate of infection above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high," while case rates between 10 and 20 are considered "high," according to the RAND Corporation, which analyzes Virginia's COVID-19 metrics.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged from a low of 5 per 100,000 residents in Manassas Park to a high of 22.3 per 100,000 residents in Prince William.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 17.5, up from 16.6 last week.

ZIP Code data: Average daily cases by local ZIP Codes were relatively stable in the past week. Average daily cases rose in six ZIP Codes, fell in four and remained unchanged in six.

Average case numbers rose in six ZIP Codes, including 20111, 20155, 22025, 22026, 22191, and 22193, according to VDH data.

Average cases were down in four local ZIP Codes: 20109, 20136, 20169 and 22171. Average daily cases remained the same in six local ZIP Codes: 20110, 20112, 20119, 20143, 20187 and 22192.

Saturday, April 3: Even as vaccinations ramp up, COVID-19 cases rise again, 1 new local death

Even as the pace of COVID-19 vaccinations ramps up locally and across the state, COVID-19 metrics are trending upward for the third straight week.

After surging to record highs in January, new daily COVID-19 cases across Virginia and in Prince William County bottomed out in mid-March, but have been slowly rising ever since.

The seven-day average for new daily cases reported across Virginia was 1,468 on Saturday, April 3, up 13% since March 13 when the seven-day average was 1,299.

In Prince William County, the seven-day average for new daily cases as of Saturday, April 3 was 110. That’s up 64% since March 13, when the seven-day average for new daily cases was 67.

The increase is being attributed to the rising amount of infections driven by the so-called U.K. variant – B.1.1.7 – which, as predicted, “has become or is very close to becoming the predominant strain in Virginia and the U.S.,” according to the latest weekly report from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute. 

“Because this variant has a higher growth rate and causes more severe disease, it is blunting the positive impacts of steadily increasing vaccination coverage,” the report says.

The current UVA model predicts another peak in cases in late spring or early summer, the size of which will depend on whether current prevention measures are maintained, including masks, social distancing and frequent hand-washing, the report said.

Another variant, B.1.351, which first emerged in South Africa last October, is the second most common variant of concern in Virginia and the U.S., the report said. 

“While this variant does not appear to cause more severe disease like B.1.1.7, evidence indicates that one of its spike protein mutations may affect neutralization by some antibodies,” the report said.

Virginia is one of five southeastern states, including Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, that each have more than 20 identified case of the B.1.351 variant. Together, the cases account for 59% of the U.S. cases of the emerging variant “that may be able to escape from some current vaccines and therapies,” the report said.

The good news is that about 30% of Virginians have now received at least one dose of the vaccine, including 70% of those 70 to 79 years old. 

The average number of doses administered over the last seven days reached 66,882, “a number that did not seem possible just a few months ago,” the report said.

The high vaccination rate of Virginia’s oldest and most vulnerable residents has meant fewer COVID-19 deaths. The state is now reporting an average of 15 deaths a day, down from the post-holiday surge of 217 daily deaths reported during the first week of March.

Local deaths

The Prince William Health District reported one new death over the past week, that of a resident in their 70s.

A total of 525 Prince William Health District residents have been lost to COVID-19 since the pandemic began, including 467 residents of Prince William County, 45 residents of Manassas and 12 residents of Manassas Park.

Local hospitalizations

The Prince William Health District added eight new hospitalizations over the last week, down from 12 in the previous week.

New hospitalizations included those of four residents in their 40s and one each in their 50s, 60s, 70s and age 80 or older.

Across the state, there were 1,022 people hospitalized for COVID-19 on Saturday, up 28 from last Saturday. They included 233 in intensive care units, up one from last week, and 127 on ventilators, up three. About 76% of the state's intensive care unit beds are occupied, while 28% of the state's ventilators are in use, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

New cases

Virginia added 1,542 new cases on Saturday, April 3, while the Prince William Health District added 127.

Over the past three weeks, children ages 9 and under have added the highest percentage of new cases in the health district, with cases in the age group rising about 2.25%.

They were followed by kids and teens ages 10 to 19, who added 1.9% of new cases relative to their existing cases.

Across the health district, residents in their 20s have had the highest total number of cases -- 8,795 -- since the pandemic began. They are followed by residents in their 40s, with 8,297 cases, and then by residents in their 30s, with a total of 8,100 cases.

Percent-positivity rate

Also on Saturday, the Prince William Health District’s percent-positivity rate was 8.8%,  up from 7.8% last Saturday, March 27, according to the VDH.

Prince William has the second-highest percent-positivity rate in Northern Virginia, behind the Rappahannock Health District, which posted a 9.7% rate on Saturday. The statewide rate was 6.4%, up from 5.7% a week ago.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita rose for the third week in a row. The health district's average rate of infection per 100,000 residents was 20.9 on Saturday, April 3, up from 19.8 last week and 19.2 the week before.

Prince William's rate of infection per capita remains the highest in Northern Virginia, with Fauquier County in second place with 18 cases per 100,000 residents. 

Any rate above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high," while case rates between 10 and 20 are considered "high," according to the RAND Corporation, which analyzes Virginia's COVID-19 metrics.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged from a low of 3.3 per 100,000 residents in Manassas Park to a high of 20.9 per 100,000 residents in Prince William.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 16.6, down from 17.2 last week.

ZIP Code data: Average daily cases by local ZIP Codes were stable or on the rise in 13 of 20 local ZIP Codes last week.

Average case numbers rose in five ZIP Codes, including 20112, 20169, 22172, 22192 and 22193, according to VDH data.

Average cases were down in six local ZIP Codes: 20110, 20119, 20155, 20181, 22134 and 22191. Average daily cases remained the same in nine local ZIP Codes: 20109, 20111, 20136, 20137, 20143, 20187, 22025, 22026 and 22125.

Saturday, March 27: Local COVID-19 cases, percent-positivity rate rise slightly, no new deaths

After dropping dramatically over the past several weeks, COVID-19 cases ticked up again across the state last week with the rate of infection rising about 13% even as vaccinations continued, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

It’s the second week in a row that cases have ticked upward. Of the state’s 35 health districts, 23 saw cases decline last week, down from 31 last week, while six saw a “slow growth" in new cases, up from two.

Among Northern Virginia health districts, only Loudoun County has seen a "slow growth" in daily cases over the past week. The Prince William Health District, along with the rest of Northern Virginia, saw new daily cases plateau, according to VDH.

In Prince William, the rate of infection per capita rose slightly from 17.2 to 17.8. Meanwhile, the percent-positivity on COVID-19 tests rose from 7.2% to 7.8%.

The rise in new cases is blamed on a combination of factors, including the increased presence of “variants of concern,” most notably the B.1.1.7 variant, which originated in the U.K.

In the past week, the VDH reported that a total of four variants of concern are circulating in Virginia, including the U.K. and South African variants as well as two that originated in California. All the variants are more contagious than the original strain of the novel coronavirus, but there's no evidence they cause more serious illness, the VDH says.

Also, some public health restrictions have been relaxed, and warmer weather, coupled with pandemic fatigue, have drawn more people out of their homes, according to the latest analysis from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute.

A point of concern is that in 81% of Virginia counties, rates have plateaued at a higher levels than were seen during last summer’s peak, according to the UVA Biocomplexity institute.

The good news is that hospitalizations continue to fall, likely the result of efforts to vaccinate more vulnerable populations. About 26.5% of Virginians have received at least one dose of the vaccine. Just more than 14% of state residents are fully vaccinated, according to the VDH.

Local deaths

The Prince William Health District reported no new deaths over the past week for the first time in several months. In fact, the state reduced the local health district's death toll by two deaths, removing the loss of one resident in their 70s and one age 80 or older.

In a recent review of COVID-19 deaths, the VDH determined that COVID-19 was not the leading cause of 99 -- or about 1% -- of the deaths blamed on infections.

A total of 524 Prince William Health District residents have been lost to COVID-19 since the pandemic began, including 467 residents of Prince William County, 45 residents of Manassas and 12 residents of Manassas Park.

Local hospitalizations

The Prince William Health District added 12 new hospitalizations last week, including those of four residents in their 50s, three in their 60s, two in their 40s and their 70s and one in their 30s.

Across the state, there were 994 people hospitalized for COVID-19 on Saturday, including 232 in intensive care units and 124 on ventilators. About 78% of the state's intensive care unit beds are occupied, while 28% of the state's ventilators are in use, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

New cases

Virginia added 1,912 new cases on Saturday, March 27, and is now averaging about 1,461 new cases each day. That's up only six from last week's average of 1,455. New daily cases peaked in Virginia during the week of Jan. 24 at more than 6,000 reported each day.

The Prince William Health District added 120 new cases on Saturday, and is now averaging about 93 new cases a day, up from 90 last week and 68 the week before.

Average new daily cases reported in the local health district peaked during the week of Jan. 20 with an average of 499 cases a day. The seven-day average for local cases hit a low of 34 on July 12, 2020.

More than 46,900 residents of the Prince William Health District have tested positive for the novel coronavirus since the pandemic began. That's about 9% of the health district's 529,000 residents.

Percent-positivity rate

Also on Saturday, the Prince William Health District’s percent-positivity rate was 7.8%, up from 7.2% last Saturday, March 20, according to the VDH.

Prince William once again has the highest percent-positivity rate in Northern Virginia. The statewide rate was 5.7%, up from 5.5% a week ago.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita rose this week for the second week in a row. The health district's average rate of infection per 100,000 residents was 19.8 per 100,000 residents on Saturday, March 27, up from 19.2 last week

Prince William's rate of infection per capita is now the highest in Northern Virginia, with Loudoun County in second place with 18.3 cases per 100,000 residents, down from 22 last week.

Any rate above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high," while case rates between 10 and 20 are considered "high," according to the RAND Corporation, which analyzes Virginia's COVID-19 metrics.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged from a low of 11.3 per 100,000 residents in Manassas to a high of 19.8 per 100,000 residents in Prince William.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 17.2, up from 17.1 week.

ZIP Code data: Average daily cases by local ZIP Codes were stable or on the rise in 15 of 20 local ZIP Codes last week.

Average case numbers rose in six ZIP Codes, including 20112, 20169, 22134, 22172, 22192 and 22193.

Average cases were down in five local ZIP Codes: 20119, 20155, 20181, 22010 and 22191. Average daily cases remained the same in nine local ZIP Codes: 20109, 20110, 20111, 20136, 20137, 20143, 20187, 22025, 22026 and 22125.

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(58) comments

Omarndc72

Media will now go back to the Wuhan flu to distract the public from the Biden Chinese scandals. Don't belive the Chinese propaganda. The vaccine is out.

someone

Remember H1N1? Guess how many American "cases" there were in the U.S.? SIXTY MILLION. That's 60,000,000. During that time, Obama & Biden were in the White House. They did next-to-nothing about it. You should think about that.

JimiWeaver4

Yes there were 60,000,000 H1N1 cases in 2009, but only 12,469 deaths

The Corona Virus has already caused almost 300,000 deaths and is officillay the current leading cause of death in the USA according to both the CDC & the White House Corona Virus task force.

someone

I can't believe the Fake News didn't say that RBG died of COVID. They let a crisis go to waste.

ed1

Maybe because it's not fake news? Perhaps you should take a more critical look at your own sources of information.

zcxnissan

6% of 186k is.

Catharpin411

Once this China Virus cant be used as a Socialist Demo political football the China Virus will simply go away.

IMPORTANT NEWS NOT FOUND HERE: CDC declares that ONLY 6% of the deaths are FROM the China Virus...the balance are deaths from thing like cancer and stroke but the patient MAY have also had the China Virus...6%...the CDC has been LYING to us for months...ya lets all hail, Fauci. Bet he resigns soon and goes to work for Gates. Remember that we have several Socialist Demos that moved sick people in with Senior Citizens and KILLED them. Can't wait for the class action suit against them.

Once again this is simply a terrible article, poorly written and even more poorly researched.

Stop printing lies as it makes you look like China is sending you cash to print such lies

Omarndc72

Same old socialists propaganda with this newspaper. Garbage.

Omarndc72

Is time to move on from this covid aka flu. Let's get back to normal and live with it. Enough of the scare tactics. We didn't shut the economy for bird flu, swine flu , or ebola or even the flu pandemic. Does anyone remember this happening?? No. So let's cut the bull sh×t and get back to normal.

JosephGeorge4Neabsco

Show the number of deaths and speed of transmission for each of those events. If you cannot, live your life and stfu.

Catharpin411

A few passing thoughts:

1. it is such bad journalism keeping this article as long as it is...NO ONE is reading it all..you earn an F

2.notice all the young rioters, looters and protestors getting sick...they earn an "S" for stupidity

3. notice that the recovery rate is now over 99%...yes lets please put the thumbscrews to the entire state with a 99% recovery rate

4. notice if you will that the China Virus now cures cancer and stroke to name a few as doctors move to ID the China Virus as the bad guy so they can get more kickback money,

5. let's are sure to close schools since the Union says so

6. the taxpayer will make out well since all that money not spent by the schools will be extra cash now. I mean they aren't going to simply spend it willy nilly right...LOL

7. let's be sure to punish the whole state for what NOVA Richmond and Hampton do

8. VA is soooo poorly run and so under the thumb of the Unions and Bloomberg...it has become a grotesque joke

zcxnissan

Preach it Catharpin411. This state is too far gone on corruption now. It's inbred in Progressives.

someone

Yes. Kathleen Corn-Filler is a total socialist from New York.

zcxnissan

Notice the recent rise in cases in younger people due to the protest/riot spike.

zcxnissan

As well as no appreciable rise in deaths or hospitalizations. Despite the spike in cases caused by the protests/riots. Pretty much a spike nationwide in all the areas where their were large protests/riots.

Omarndc72

Once the covid scam starts to go away, the race and riots will continue, when that slows down, back to the covid nonsense.

Marty

Instead of a mile long article, one table with basic info would provide the necessary information. Total number of infections, % hospitalization, % death. Overall and daily. And by age groups.Such table would fit in the computer screen.

zcxnissan

Sad part is it truly peaked in April. Gov. Blackface dragged it out for political gain just like the mask edict, months after he should have done it. Now we have hot, warm and humid temperatures and sunlight the worst things for a virus and yet we have to wear masks in certain businesses. Good thing it's only enforceable by the health dept.

RaiderRider

number of cases is irrelevant as there is more testing. How about telling us about the hospitalization rate instead.

Marty

These number are pretty much useless. Especially for 60 years would and below. Would be good to know their health status and other relevant info.

Heymarket

I am disappointed to see PrinceWilliamTimes stopped reporting COVID-19 statistics (cases/deaths) for the "Northern Virginia" area. This was quite useful. They kept reporting these as long as the numbers were going up. Once they started trending downward, they stopped. I was counting on them to finish telling the whole story.

zcxnissan

Still pretty much a nursing home disease unless you have comorbidities like diabetes and obesity while younger. I see with the protests that social distancing never really mattered. Today's progressive democrat, do as I say not as I do. See Gov. Northam about that one.

Jia7c

New here. I took a test last Tuesday/Wednesday in Manassas. They still haven’t called me. Called the people doing the test they state they don’t handle the results and someone will call this week.

Marty

If you feel OK, why would you take the test? 5 minutes later (figuratively speaking) you can get infected and the entire test was a waste of time.

Marty

Our inept governor and his staff should travel, to Florida to learn how to handle the virus.

InsideCommenter

This comment aged horribly Florida is an epicenter of the virus while Virginia is doing much better.

Omarndc72

Let businesses set their rules for dealing with the public in a safe manner till this blows over. Keep the beurocrats and politicians quarantine in Richmond, leave the rest of us alone.

zcxnissan

Its obvious it peaked in April by any metric. Obvious and deliberate overreaction by the Governor.

ed1

Peaked yes but due to the lack of appropriate measures by people out and about, it's declining at an alarming slow rate.

zcxnissan

Double peaked and has fallen off the map literally.

Marty

Looks like the governor is incapable of managing the virus crisis. Things are going from bad to worse by the day.

Omarndc72

You want to see how fast they open. ? Stop paying all of the state employees and politicians from governor down. Then you see how fast the politicians change.

Jameson

What is going to change by June 10th that will allow businesses to re-open. I can only imagine he will try to push the date back again.

someone

As more people are tested, more people will test positive for COVID-19. Flu viruses can hang-around for years. So, businesses could be closed for years.

zcxnissan

Its insane to do that you know that right?

someone

Yes. I know it's insane. Here we are, it's the end of August & the Democrats are still pushing their end-of-the-world narrative. It's crazy & CORRUPT.

joatmon

Because people are impatient and not taking it as seriously as they should. The stay at home order needs to be strictly enforced and more businesses need to shut down. I'm sorry, but McDonalds and Starbucks aren't essential. I see kids continuing to play on playgrounds and teenagers socializing because they are too dumb to realize the ramifications of their actions, nor do they care because they seem no threat to themselves. I received an email from a painting contractor the other day saying they are open and operating as an essential business. Really!? Stay home people or this will never get better!

Marty

We need to shut down 75% of the government, it is also not essential. Then we shall see how fast everything reopens. For the people who work at McDonalds, McDonalds is essential.

zcxnissan

Brad take your gibberish elsewhere fascist. More people are dying of murder, suicide and other health conditions because of quarantines and lock downs then this bad year flu. If you had practiced better eating and sanitary habits we probably wouldn't even have to discuss this you confused gender fool. Go see a psychiatrist.

Omarndc72

Its simple, go back to work. If your sick dont go out stay home till is passed. Stay away from elder people and wash your hands dont touch your face.

weouchere

InsideCommenter + Brad = Morons. Were you idiots calling him out for acting too soon before you started saying he acted too late like the rest of the Libtard party?

InsideCommenter

weouchere + zcxnissan = batshit crazy morons. I was never calling him out for acting too soon, he acted to late if we had started these measures two weeks earlier we would've been able to avoid 90% of the cases. The gas-lighting and lies you all do are just hilarious.

zcxnissan

Actually it has been noted by many medical studies that blacks are more susceptible because they have many underlying conditions like obesity, heart disease, diabetes, unhealthy lifestyles. Social distancing is not being practiced in the cities. That's obvious. See New York City. Also wondering why nursing home death statistics are not being reported properly. They are ginning up the totals trying to use any disaster for political advantage. InsideCommenter and Brad your TDS is obvious.

zcxnissan

The numbers in Chesterfield pale in comparison to Democrat cities and counties nationwide.

InsideCommenter

Ignorant statement of the article award has now been granted. A virus will spread where more people live, places that are more densely populated are naturally where the virus will spread faster. Despite this Democratic areas have been doing better than Red states who are whining like crybabies about not being able to get a haircut or dine in, a rise in cases in the state of Kentucky was attributed to fascist protests about the stay at home orders.

zcxnissan

Gaslighting was a mastery first aced by Tamanny Hall democrats and passed on from generation to generation. From there to democrat Klansmen and segregationists. Even up to the modern day. Nowadays they have turned more fascistic/communist with their green new deals and universal incomes. Not to mention the bs being slung about global warming/climate change, or whatever they will call it next week.

Brad

Look, people are dying because of this terrible disease. Why don't you take your lies and obsessions to some neo-conservative chat room, no one wants to read your gibberish here.

InsideCommenter

What is this hot pile of garbage you call an argument. All you do is name call talk about facts and logic not whatever you saw on Facebook.

ed1

All he said was people are dying. That is accurate. Nationally we've had more deaths in a month than from a year with flu and that's with all the social distancing. If you're not capable of taking in seriously or don't want to be stuck at home, please at least where a mask and avoid contact with others.

InsideCommenter

ed1,

I agree with the one who talked about the mortality of this grave disease. The one who I was rebutting was zcxnissan who constantly trolls and makes up lies.

Joemama

If these non-essential democrats would stay home it would stop spreading.

InsideCommenter

Maybe if the orange cheeto and his cultists would stay at their home instead of prancing around we could flatten the curve.

Brad

Or maybe if the orange cheeto and his cultists had done their job timely and correctly in the first place these unfortunates might not have been infected or died.

zcxnissan

I guess going to Chinatown doesn't count if your Nancy Pelosi. So many lies, it comes natural to the old bat. She's probably a super spreader. She probably used hydroxychloroquine as an antidote.

ed1

Why would she use an unproven, dangerous drug pushed by trump. Was he being sarcastic about that one as well or only about disinfectant and really bright lights?

zcxnissan

Funny how most of the deaths are in Democrat cities and states. I guess they don't follow rules or laws.

InsideCommenter

Chesterfield is heavily Republican and has many cases. Anyhow cases tend to be in areas that have a larger population. Has nothing to do with political affiliation or rule following.

Mg

like the two below you

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