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Until the latest surge of reported COVID-19 deaths began pouring in over the last 10 days, it appeared that January 2021 would be the worst month of the pandemic for deaths reported in the Prince William Health District.

Now, it's clear that was not true. As of Sunday, a total of 100 deaths had been reported in the Prince William Health District in February, beating January's reported death toll of 56 by about 75%. 

March is already off to a deadly start with 16 local deaths reported on Monday, March 1, according to data released this morning by the Virginia Department of Health.

The latest fatalities -- 24 were reported in just the last two days -- brings the total number of deaths reported in the Prince William Health District since Monday, Feb. 22, to a whopping 82.

The latest 24 fatalities, including 16 reported on Monday and eight reported on Sunday, include the deaths of 22 Prince William County residents and two from the City of Manassas.

The latest victims include 11 women and 13 men. The youngest was in their 30s, one was in their 40s, one was in their 50s, two were in their 60s, nine were in their 70s and 10 were age 80 or older.

Virginia reported a total of 231 new deaths across the state on Monday, bringing the state's COVID-19 death toll to 8,783.

Deaths are a lagging indicator of the pandemic, with most reported at least a few weeks after they occur. Most of the new deaths added over the past week occurred in January and early February, while the deaths reported in January occurred in December. 

Virginia deaths by date of death

According to this graphic showing deaths by date of death, Virginia saw COVID-19 deaths peak in December and January.

Reported deaths in Virginia have set new records over the past week, as the state began processing early 2021 deaths. The numbers underscore just how deadly COVID-19 was across the state due to spikes in COVID-19 cases around the holidays. Virginia saw its cases rise steadily from about Halloween through late January.

Virginia deaths by date reported

This Virginia Department of Health graphic shows reported deaths spiking in January and February.

New daily cases, however, have sharply declined in both the commonwealth and Prince William County over the last few weeks.

The state added 1,124 cases on Monday, and is now averaging about 1,701 a day. New daily cases peaked in Virginia during the week of Jan. 24 at more than 6,000 cases a day.

The Prince William Health District added 71 new cases on Monday, and is now averaging about 93 new cases a day, down from a Jan. 20 peak of 499 daily cases.

Also on Monday, Prince William Health District’s percent-positivity rate dropped below 9% for the first time in three months. The health district reported a rate of 8.7%, the lowest since Nov. 12, according to the VDH.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita continued to drop over the weekend and hit 20 per 100,000 residents on Monday, down from 21.2 per 100,000 residents on Saturday.

Prince William's rate of infection per capita is now the second-highest in Northern Virginia behind Stafford County, which reported a rate of 21 per 100,000 residents on Monday. Any rate above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high," according to the RAND Corporation, which analyzes Virginia's COVID-19 metrics.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged from a low of 11.6 per 100,000 residents in Manassas Park to a high of 23 per 100,000 residents in Stafford County.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 20 on Monday, March 1.

ZIP Code data: Average daily cases remained stable in most local ZIP Codes this past week after falling significantly the week before.

Average daily cases dropped in six of 20 local ZIP Codes last week, while rising in four and remaining the same in nine.

Saturday, Feb. 27: Prince William reports 26 more deaths to COVID-19, bringing February death toll to 92

The post-holiday surge of reported deaths due to COVID-19 continued this week with Virginia setting its latest record fo daily reported deaths on Friday with 234. Saturday’s death tally was the second-highest since the pandemic began: 185.

In Prince William, another 26 deaths were reported over the last two days, including 14 on Friday and 12 on Saturday, bringing the number of deaths reported in locally in February to 92.

Virginia has so far lost 8,382 people to the pandemic, while Prince William County has lost 446.

Deaths are a lagging indicator of the pandemic, with most reported at least a few weeks after they occur. Most of the new deaths added over the past week occurred in January and early February, while the deaths reported in January occurred in December. 

Reported deaths in Virginia have set new records over the past week, as the state began processing early 2021 deaths. The numbers underscore just how deadly COVID-19 has been across the state due to the holiday season spikes in COVID-19 cases, which began shortly after Thanksgiving.

Daily cases have since waned significantly across the state and in Prince William County, 

The state added 1,675 cases on Saturday, and is now averaging about 1,786 a day. New daily cases peaked during the week of Jan. 24 at more than 6,000 cases a day.

The Prince William Health District added 65 new cases on Saturday, and is now averaging about 104 new case a day, down from a peak of 499 on Jan. 20.

Also on Saturday, Prince William Health District’s percent-positivity rate dropped below 10% for the first time in three months. The health district reported a rate of 9.1%, the lowest since Nov. 13, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

The University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute, in its latest weekly report, noted that COVID-19 cases are down significantly from winter peaks, and declining or plateauing in all states across the country.

Also, vaccine distribution has been rising steadily despite some interruptions due to winter storms. 

If these trends continue, the model suggests Virginia has already seen its peak of new COVID-19 cases and could see case counts decline to levels not seen since last June, the report said.

Cases growing only on college campuses

One concern noted in the report is that several of Virginia’s colleges and universities are experiencing outbreaks of COVID-19, resulting in the top 10 “hot spot” ZIP Codes of the week being located within or around large universities, with Charlottesville, the home of the University of Virginia, at the top of the list.

Cases are also on the rise in Richmond, Lexington and Blacksburg, the report notes. The cases are thought to be the result of both students returning to campus after extended winter breaks – many campuses went all virtual at Thanksgiving – as well as “widespread noncompliance with safety protocols” on some campuses, most notably UVA.

The Blue Ridge Health District, which includes Charlottesville, is in a surge trajectory this week, while New River, encompassing Blacksburg, is in slow growth. Alleghany Health District is also in slow growth, the report said.

These campus outbreaks provide a warning,” the report said, noting that worst-case-scenario models show another possible surge of cases over the summer that could top the January surge if more contagious variants take hold, which would extend the pandemic into the fall. 

“If new variants are added to this mix, the summer surge could top the peak Virginia experienced in January,” the report said. “…This is because the new variants in the model accelerate transmission rates.”

If case declines are rapid, new variants may slow those declines down a bit, but not stop it. However, this same effect can push plateaus into growth, and growth into surges, the report says.

“When coupled with relaxed prevention, the model suggests even small increases can lead to large projected surges. Unfortunately, the B.1.1.7 variant was identified on the UVA campus,” the report said. “Virginia's health is in our hands. Do your part to stop the spread.”

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita ticked down slightly on Saturday to 21.2 per 100,000 residents, down from 21.7 on Thursday. It remains the highest in Northern Virginia. Any rate above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high."

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Feb. 27 from a low of 9.1 in Manassas Park to a high of 21.2 in Prince William County.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 21 on Feb. 27.

ZIP Code data: Average daily cases remained stable in most local ZIP Codes this past week after falling significantly the week before.

Average daily cases dropped in six of 20 local ZIP Codes last week, while rising in four and remaining the same in nine.

Thursday, Feb. 25: Prince William reports 23 more deaths to COVID-19, bringing February death toll to 66

A post-holiday-season surge of COVID-19 cases has turned into a post-holiday surge of COVID-19 deaths. The Prince William Health District has reported 66 local fatalities due to COVID-19 in February, including 44 since Saturday, Feb. 20. 

With just three days left in the shortest month of the year, February 2021 now leads all other months in reported local COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began. Up until this week, January had the most reported local deaths with 57.

As of Thursday, Virginia had tallied a total of 7,963 people lost to the pandemic.

The recent surge in reported deaths – amounting to an average of 124 reported a day – reflects the surge of cases reported in both December and January. On its website this week, the Virginia Department of Health noted it is now processing 2021 death certificates related to those spikes.

In other words, most of the deaths reported in the last few days actually occurred in January. The newly reported deaths underscore that both December and January were even more deadly than they initially appeared.

New Year’s Eve was one of the deadliest days of the pandemic with 63 deaths reported on that day alone.

Virginia has set records for newly reported deaths in each of the last several days. Across the state, a total of 865 were reported over the last five days.

The Prince William Health District, which includes Prince William County, Manassas and Manassas Park, has now lost a 179 women and 240 men to COVID-19.

The local death toll  as of Thursday was 420.

Prince William County has lost 375 residents to COVID-19, while the City of Manassas has lost 36 and Manassas Park, 9.

The victims range in age from their 20s to over 80. COVID-19 has been especially devastating to those age 80 and older. Across the county, only 727 residents over age 80 have contracted COVID-19, and of those, 148, or just more than 20%, have died, according to VDH data.

Cases: The number of cases added daily in Virginia have plummeted in recent weeks but ticked up above 2,000 on Thursday with 2,036.  Virginia is now averaging about 1,869 cases daily, down from a peak of 6,149 back on Jan. 20.

The Prince William Health District reported 127 new cases on Thursday, also an increase from recent days. They included 109 cases in Prince William County, 14 in Manassas and four in Manassas Park.

The local health district is now reporting an average of 103 cases a day, down from a peak of 499 on Jan. 20.

Hospitalizations: There were 1,488 people hospitalized across the state due to COVID-19 on Thursday, down 52 from Monday. 

Of those hospitalized, 318 patients were in intensive care units, unchanged from Monday. Of patients in ICUs, 183 were on ventilators, down four, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

About 31% of the state's ventilators were in use as of Monday, and 80% of the state's ICU beds were occupied, according to the VHHA.

There were two new hospitalizations reported locally on Thursday, those of one resident in their 50s and another in their 60s. 

Percent-positivity rate: The local percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests ticked down to 10% on Thursday, down from 11% on Monday.

The Prince William Health District's percent-positivity rate dipped to the second-highest in Northern Virginia, as the Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reported a rate of 10.7% on Thursday. 

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10,  which will expire on March 1.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita ticked down to 21.7 per 100,000 residents on Thursday, down from 23.7 on Thursday, but remains the highest in Northern Virginia. Any rate above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high."

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Feb. 25 from a low of 6.6 in Manassas Park to a high of 21.7 in Prince William County.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 21.9 on Feb. 22, down from 23 on Monday.

ZIP Code data: Average daily cases fell significantly in the past week in nearly all local ZIP Codes, dropping from one-third to one-half their levels last week. 

Average daily cases dropped in 16 of 20 local ZIP Codes last week, while rising in two and remaining steady in two.

Monday, Feb. 22: Prince William reports 9 more deaths to COVID-19, bringing the 3-day total to 28

The deaths of nine more local residents to COVID-19 were reported on Monday, bringing the total number of local deaths reported since Saturday to 28 -- the highest three-day tally since the pandemic began.

Virginia has set records for newly reported deaths in each of the last three days. Across the state, 155 deaths were reported on Monday; 134 were reported on Sunday; and 99 were reported on Saturday. That's a three-day total of 388.

Virginia has now lost a total of 7,486 people to the pandemic.

The Virginia Department of Health included a note on its website Monday explaining it is now processing death certificates from 2021 deaths related to the post-holiday surge of COVID-19 cases.

"As a result, a larger number of deaths is expected to be added by report date," the VDH said.

In other words, the deaths reported in the last few days actually occurred in January. The newly reported deaths underscore that both December and January were even more deadly than they initially appeared.

A VDH graphic showing deaths by date of death, shows that fatalities across the state reached new heights in both December and January.

Virginia deaths by date of death

According to this graphic showing deaths by date of death, Virginia saw COVID-19 deaths peak in December and January.

New Year’s Eve was one of the deadliest days of the pandemic with 63 deaths reported on that day alone.

Local deaths: The latest local deaths reported on Monday, Feb. 22, included those of four women and five men. All nine were residents of Prince William County. The VDH does not release the dates that each death occurred.

The latest victims ranged in age from their 60s to over 80. Five were in their 60s, one was in their 70s and three were age 80 or older, according to VDH data. 

The additional victims bring the local death toll due to the pandemic to 397. There have been 43 local deaths reported, so far, during the month of February. There were 57 local deaths reported in January.

There were 29 deaths reported across Northern Virginia on Monday, Feb. 22, with the Prince William Health District reporting the most -- nine -- followed by Fairfax County with eight and then by Stafford and Loudoun counties with three each, according to VDH data.

Cases: Virginia added 1,555 new cases on Monday, down from 2,303 on Sunday. Virginia is now averaging about 1,962 cases daily, down from Sunday's 2,017.

The Prince William Health District reported 73 new cases on Monday, down from 174 on Sunday. They included 66 cases in Prince William County and seven in Manassas. There were no new cases reported in Manassas Park.

The local health district is now reporting an average of 111 cases a day as of Monday, Feb. 22, down from 186 daily cases a week ago. The local health district's average daily cases peaked at 499 on Jan. 20. 

Hospitalizations: There were 1,540 people hospitalized across the state due to COVID-19 on Monday, down eight from Sunday. 

Of those hospitalized, 318 patients were in intensive care units, up 12 from Sunday. Of patients in ICUs, 187 were on ventilators, up one, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

About 31% of the state's ventilators were in use as of Monday, and 76% of the state's ICU beds were occupied, according to the VHHA.

There was one new hospitalization reported locally on Monday, that of a person in their 40s.

Percent-positivity rate: The local percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests remained 11% on Monday, after dipping to 10.3% on Saturday. 

The Prince William Health District's percent-positivity rate dipped to the second-highest in Northern Virginia, as the Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reported a rate of 11.5% on Monday. 

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which has been extended until Feb. 28.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita ticked down to 23.7 per 100,000 residents on Monday, down from 24.2, but remains the highest in Northern Virginia. Any rate above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high."

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Feb. 22 from a low of 5.8 in Manassas Park to a high of 23.7 in Prince William County.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 23 on Feb. 22, down from 23.7 on Sunday.

ZIP Code data: Average daily cases fell significantly in the past week in nearly all local ZIP Codes, dropping from one-third to one-half their levels last week. 

Average daily cases dropped in 16 of 20 local ZIP Codes last week, while rising in two and remaining steady in two.

Sunday, Feb. 21: Prince William reports 12more deaths to COVID-19, bringing the 2-day total to 19

The deaths of 12 more local residents to COVID-19 were reported on Sunday, bringing the total number of local deaths reported this weekend to a whopping 19 -- the highest two-day tally since the pandemic began.

A total of 134 deaths were reported across Virginia on Sunday, beating the most recent one-day record for reported deaths -- 99 -- which was set just one day ago. That brings the number of deaths reported over the weekend in the commonwealth to 233.

The Virginia Department of Health gave no explanation for the high number of deaths reported over the past two days. In past spikes, the state usually cited a reporting backlog. Deaths are generally a lagging indicator, as it can take weeks for death certificates to be reviewed and reported.

According to the VDH website, the newly reported deaths reveal that December and January were even more deadly than they initially appeared. According to a graphic showing deaths according to the dates on which they occurred, deaths reached new heights in both December and January.

Virginia deaths by date of death

According to this graphic showing deaths by date of death, Virginia saw COVID-19 deaths peak in December and January.

New Year’s Eve was one of the deadliest days of the pandemic with 63 deaths reported on that day alone.

Local deaths: The latest local deaths reported on Sunday, Feb. 21, included those of five men and seven women. Eleven were residents of Prince William County and one lived in Manassas.

The latest victims ranged in age from their 40s to over 80. Two were in their 40s, two were in their 50s, three were in their 60s, three were in their 70s and two were age 80 or older, according to VDH data. 

The additional victims bring the local death toll due to the pandemic to 388. There have been 34 local deaths reported, so far, during the month of February. There were 57 local deaths reported in January.

There were 31 deaths reported across Northern Virginia on Sunday, Feb. 21, with the Prince William Health District reporting the most -- 12 -- followed by Fairfax County with 10 and then by Stafford County with three, according to VDH data.

Cases: Virginia added 2,303 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday, up from 1,882 on Saturday. Virginia is now averaging about 2,017 cases daily, down from Saturday's 2,055.

The Prince William Health District reported 174 cases on Sunday, up from 102 on Saturday. They included 160 cases in Prince William County, 13 in Manassas and one in Manassas Park.

The local health district is now reporting an average of 113 cases a day as of Sunday, Feb. 21, down from 186 daily cases a week ago. The local health district's average daily cases peaked at 499 on Jan. 20. 

Hospitalizations: There were 1,548 people hospitalized across the state due to COVID-19 on Sunday, down 46 from Saturday. 

Of those hospitalized, 306 patients were in intensive care units, down six from Saturday. Of patients in ICUs, 186 were on ventilators, unchanged from Saturday, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

About 32% of the state's ventilators were in use as of this weekend and 77% of the state's ICU beds were occupied, according to the VHHA.

There was one new hospitalizations reported locally on Sunday, that of a person in their 70s.

Percent-positivity rate: The local percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests rose to 11% on Sunday, after dipping to 10.3% on Saturday. 

The Prince William Health District's percent-positivity rate is now the highest in Northern Virginia along with the Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties. Both the Prince William and Rappahannock health districts reported rates of 11% on Sunday. 

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which has been extended until Feb. 28.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita is once again the highest in Northern Virginia, ticking up to 24.2 per 100,000 residents on Sunday from 23.4 on Saturday.  Any rate above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high."

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Feb. 21 from a low of 7.4 in Manassas Park to a high of 24.2 in Prince William County.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 23.7 on Feb. 21, down from 24.1 on Saturday.

ZIP Code data: Average daily cases fell significantly in the past week in nearly all local ZIP Codes, dropping from one-third to one-half their levels last week. 

Average daily cases dropped in 16 of 20 local ZIP Codes last week, while rising in two and remaining steady in two.

Saturday, Feb. 20: Prince William loses 8 more to COVID-19, but cases, hospitalizations still trending lower

The deaths of eight more local residents to COVID-19 were reported over the last week, with seven reported on Saturday alone. A total of 99 new deaths were reported across the state on Saturday – the highest daily total so far of the now 1-year-old coronavirus pandemic.

But local cases and hospitalizations continue to decline and are now at their lowest levels since Nov. 18. The Prince William Health District was reporting an average of 109.3 cases daily as of Saturday, Feb. 20, down from a peak of 499 on Jan. 20. 

The local seven-day average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests is also lower, having fallen below 11% for the first time since Nov. 25.

Local cases per capita are 23.4 per 100,000 residents. That's still categorized as “very high” but is lower than it has been in weeks. 

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention school metrics for Prince William County are also improving while still in the “red zone” for the two core indicators: cases per capita and percent-positivity rate.

Local deaths: The latest local deaths include those of seven men and one woman. One was in their 50s, two were in their 60s, three were in their 70s and two were age 80 and older.

The additional victims bring the local death toll due to the pandemic to 376. There have been 22 local deaths reported, so far, during the month of February.

The Virginia Department of Health gave no explanation for the high number of deaths reported on Saturday, Feb. 20. In past spikes, the state usually cited a backlog. Deaths are generally a lagging indicator, as it can take weeks for death certificates to be reviewed and reported.

According to the VDH website, New Year’s Eve was one of the deadliest days of the pandemic with 63 deaths reported on that day alone. More recently, 29 Virginians were lost to COVID-19 on Saturday, Feb. 13.

Cases still dropping across the state

The University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute’s latest report on the pandemic, issued Friday, continued to be optimistic. Average daily cases per capita were at about 39 per 100,000 residents during the week ending Feb. 14. Daily cases are thought to have peaked at just over 68 per 100,000 residents during the week ending Jan. 24. 

The most significant risk continues to be variants of the virus, which are more contagious. It is predicted that the variant first discovered in the U.K. could be the dominant variant in Virginia by the end of March, the report said.

To avoid another spike of cases, the UVA Biocomplexity Institute urges Virginians to continue prevention efforts, including wearing masks, frequent hand-washing and getting vaccinated as soon as they are eligible. 

Cases: Virginia added 1,882 new cases of COVID-19 on Saturday, Feb. 20, and is averaging about 2,055 cases a day, down from 2,982 daily cases a week ago.

The Prince William Health District reported 102 cases on Saturday, including 98 in Prince William County and four in Manassas. There were no new cases reported in Manassas Park.

The local health district is now reporting an average of 106 cases a day as of Saturday, Feb. 20, down from 186 daily cases a week ago. The local health district's average daily cases peaked at 499 on Jan. 20. 

Hospitalizations: There were 1,594 people hospitalized across the state due to COVID-19 on Saturday, down from 1,906 last weekend. 

Of those hospitalized, 312 patients were in intensive care units, down 80 from last weekend. Of patients in ICUs, 186 were on ventilators, down 52 from last week, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

About 32% of the state's ventilators were in use as of this weekend and 78% of the state's ICU beds were occupied, according to the VHHA.

There were 17 new hospitalizations reported locally over the last week, including that of one child age 9 or under.

Other Prince William Health District residents hospitalized in the last week included one person in their 40s, three in their 50s, eight in their 60s, three in their 70s and one age 80 or older, according to VDH data.

Percent-positivity rate: The local percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests fell to 10.3% on Saturday, down from 11.6% last week.

The Prince William Health District's percent-positivity rate is the second-highest in Northern Virginia, with the Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 11%, down from 15% last week.

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which has been extended until Feb. 28.

School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools remain in the "highest risk" range in two of the three core metrics on the CDC scale. Secondary metrics are in the "lowest risk" range and improved from last week.

Among core metrics: The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the "highest risk" category at 449.8, down from 564.3 last week and down from 709 two weeks ago.

The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 10.6%, which is also in the highest-risk range but down from 11% last week.

Among secondary metrics: the percent change in cases from this week to last is negative 42.9%, which is in the "lowest risk" range.

The percentage of hospital beds filled in the region remained below 80% at 79%, a slight uptick from last week but still in the "lowest risk" range. Meanwhile 6.9% of local hospital beds are filled with COVID-19 patients, which is also in the "lowest risk" range and down from 8.1% last week.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita dipped to 23.4 per 100,000 residents down from 39.8 last week. Any rate above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high."

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Feb. 20 from a low of 6.6 in Manassas Park to 24.7 in Stafford County.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 24.1 on Feb. 20, down from 35 last week.

ZIP Code data: Average daily cases fell significantly in the past week in nearly all local ZIP Codes, dropping from on-third to one-half their levels last week. 

Average daily cases dropped in 16 of 20 local ZIP Codes last week, while rising in two and remaining steady in two.

Saturday, Feb. 14: Prince William loses 3 more to COVID-19, but cases, hospitalizations trending down

COVID-19 cases are still high in Virginia but may have peaked last month. Also, both deaths and hospitalizations are trending downward, leading experts analyzing the COVID-19 pandemic in the commonwealth to release a mostly optimistic report this week.

“Things are looking up. Cases are dropping at their fastest rate since the pandemic began. Vaccine uptake is increasing. Hospitalizations and deaths are on a decline,” said the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute in its most recent report, released Friday, Feb. 12.

Cases of COVID-19 in Virginia are thought to have peaked at 68 per 100,000 residents during the week ending Jan. 24, according to the report.

Cases were at about 42 per 100,000 residents across the state this week, and at 39.8 per 100,000 residents in Prince William County. In Prince William, daily cases peaked at average of 106.6 per 100,000 residents on Wednesday, Jan. 20.

Still, the UVA institute notes Virginians cannot let their guard down, especially as more contagious variants of COVID-19 gain a foothold in the state.

The Virginia Department of Health announced Friday that a total of eight cases of the variants have been identified in Virginia so far, including six of the variant that first appeared in the United Kingdom, also known as the B.1.1.7 variant, and two of the variant that first appeared in South Africa, also known as the B.1.351 variant.

“If Virginians relax their behavior as new variants take hold, we could face another near-peak in the spring, with cases nearly as high as January 2021,” the UVA report says.

Under the worst-case scenario predicted by the UVA model – dubbed the “fatigued control, variant B.1.1.7 [U.K. variant] scenario" -- daily cases would spike to an average of 66 per 100,000 residents during the week ending May 30. 

“To avoid high peaks, we must give vaccines time to have an impact, especially as new variants become more prevalent across the nation,” the report adds. “Do your part to stop the spread. Continue to practice good prevention and get vaccinated when eligible.

Local deaths

Prince William County lost three more residents to COVID-19 this past week, bringing the local death toll to 368.

The Prince William Health District, which includes the county, Manassas and Manassas Park, has reported 14 deaths in February after reporting 57 deaths in January, which was the deadliest month of the pandemic so far.

One local death was removed from the Prince William Health District’s tally this week, that of a resident in their 70s.

The most recent deaths were reported on Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday of this past week. The fatalities included one woman and two men; one was in their 30s and two were in their 50s.

The local health district is now averaging under one death a day, down from four a day in January. Statewide, Virginia reported 16 deaths on Sunday, Feb. 14, and is averaging about 33 reported deaths per day, down from about 50 at the January peak, according to VDH data.

Statewide, more than 1,400 deaths were reported in January. The state's total death toll, now 7,012, surpassed 7,000 on Sunday.

Cases: Virginia added 2,575 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday, Feb. 14, and is averaging about 2,982 cases a day.

The Prince William Health District reported 146 new cases on Sunday, including 133 in Prince William County and 13 in Manassas. There were no new cases reported in Manassas Park.

The local health district is now reporting an average of 186 cases a day as of Feb. 14, down from 190 last week. The local health district's average daily cases peaked at 499 on Jan. 20. 

Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state fell below 2,000 this week for the first time in weeks. There were 1,906 people hospitalized across Virginia on Sunday, Feb. 14.

Of those hospitalized, 392 patients were in intensive care units, down 73 from last weekend. Of patients in ICUs, 238 were on ventilators, down 56 from last week, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

About 34% of the state's ventilators were in use and 77% of the state's ICU beds were occupied on Sunday, according to the VHHA.

There were 13 new hospitalizations reported locally over the last week, including those of two residents in their 40s, two in their 50s, three in their 60s, four in their 70s and two age 80 or older, according to VDH data.

Percent-positivity rate: The local percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests ticked up slightly this week and is now 11.6%, up from 11.5% last week.

The Prince William Health District's percent-positivity rate is the second-highest in Northern Virginia, with the Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 15%, down slightly from 15.4% last week.

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which has been extended until Feb. 28.

School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools remain in the "highest risk" range in two of the three core metrics on the CDC scale but are also in the "lowest risk" range in three secondary metrics -- a slight improvement from last week.

Among core metrics: The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the "highest risk" category at 564.3, down from 709.6 last Sunday, Feb. 7.

The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 11.2, which is also in the highest-risk range but down from 12.5% last week.

Among secondary metrics: the percent change in cases from this week to last last is negative 2.3%, which is in the "lowest risk" range.

The percentage of hospital beds filled in the region remained below 80% at 78.5%, down slightly from 79.5%, which is in the "lowest risk" range, while 8.1% of local hospital beds are filled with COVID-19 patients, which is also in the "lowest risk" range and down from 10.9% last week.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita dipped to 39.8 per 100,000 residents down from 40.8 last week. Any rate above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high."

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Sunday, Feb. 14, from a low of 13.2 in Manassas Park to 58.2 in Stafford County.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 35 on Sunday, Feb. 14, down from 40 last week.

ZIP Code data: Average daily cases remained steady in most local ZIP Codes during the week ending Feb. 13.

Average daily cases rose in seven local ZIP Codes, fell in seven and remained the same in six.

Saturday, Feb. 7: COVID-19 cases remain ‘very high’ in Va., Prince William, but show 2-week decline

Virginia’s COVID-19 numbers have declined over the past two weeks as a result of a holiday surge that did not last as long as feared. But new variants of the virus – and a rocky vaccine rollout—have experts urging caution.

That was the gist of the latest weekly updates from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute and the RAND Corporation, both of which analyze the state’s pandemic data and issue weekly reports to the Virginia Department of Health.

Virginia’s average number of daily COVID-19 cases remains “very high” with 63 counties – including Prince William – reporting more than 40 cases per 100,000 residents. Anything above 20 cases daily per 100,000 residents is considered “very high.”

But the UVA Institute’s adaptive model shows weekly cases may have peaked on Jan. 24 with 69 cases per 100,000 residents, the report says.

That’s a big switch from previous reports that predicted an average of more than 100 cases per 100,000 residents in mid-February.

Things could get worse fast, however, if Virginians allow “pandemic fatigue” to set in as new, more transmissible variants take hold. Under the model’s updated worst-case scenario, average daily cases could peak at 111 cases per 100,000 residents during the week ending May 9, the UVA Biocomplexity Institute says.

“To avoid high peaks or extending the pandemic, we must give vaccines time to have an impact, especially as new variants continue to be identified in the United States,” the report says. 

Regarding the variants, the report notes that more than 600 cases of new “variants of concern" have been identified in 33 states. 

In Virginia, four cases of the variant first found in the United Kingdom have been identified – three in Northern Virginia and one in Northwest Virginia – while one case of the variant that first appeared in South Africa was identified in Eastern Virginia.

Maryland, however, has identified 12 cases of the U.K. variant and three of the South Africa variant, leading the UVA report to speculate that might be why Loudoun County is the only health district currently seeing a surge in cases.

“While it may be a coincidence, the only health district currently experiencing a surge, Loudoun, is also located in Virginia's Northern region,” the report said.

The reports, released Friday, were published before new research suggesting the new variants are “spreading rapidly” in the U.S. The CDC has already forecast that the U.K. variant would become dominant in the U.S. by March.

Florida has so far reported the highest prevalence of the U.K. variant, formally known as the B.1.1.7 variant, with 187 cases as of Thursday, Feb. 4.

Florida was followed by the much more populous California with 145 infections. The research estimated the doubling time of B.1.1.7 prevalence in positive test results at 9.1 days.

Vaccinations off to 'a rocky start'

The report notes that “after a rocky start,” vaccine administrations are picking up with more than 7% of Virginians having received one or more doses as of Friday. 

But the RAND Corporation notes that “large stockpiles” of the vaccine remain across the state with about half of the doses delivered not yet administered.

“While vaccines will ultimately spell the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, it may be late summer before enough people are vaccinated to allow a return to normalcy,” the report notes. “In the meantime, the modeling shows that maintaining or improving, prevention practices can successfully lower case rates.”

This is true even if the new variants become dominant because while the variants increase transmission rates, their impact relies on existing levels of transmission, the report notes.

“If existing transmission rates are low, the impact of VoCs is limited. Additionally, fewer cases mean fewer opportunities for VoCs to develop,” the report says. 

Local deaths reported in February: 12

As of Sunday, the Prince William Health District had reported a total of 12 deaths in February. The latest victim was a white woman age 80 or older, according to VDH data.

The overall local death toll remains 365, however, one death, that of a Black woman in her 50s, was removed from the Prince William County death toll on Sunday.

Statewide, 41 deaths were reported on Saturday, while five were reported on Sunday. Virginia is losing an average of 45 people a day from COVID-19, according to the VDH.

Cases: Virginia added 2,949 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday and is averaging about 3,400 cases a day as of Feb. 7.

The Prince William Health District reported 188 new cases on Sunday, including 168 in Prince William County, 19 in Manassas and one in Manassas Park. The local health district is now reporting an average of 190 cases a day as of Feb. 6, down from a peak of 499 on Jan. 20. 

Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state ticked up slightly with 2,376 people hospitalized on Sunday, up 13 from Friday.

Of those hospitalized, 465 patients were in intensive care units, up three from Friday. There were 294 on ventilators, unchanged from Friday, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

About 34% of the state's ventilators were in use and 82% of the state's ICU beds were occupied on Thursday, according to the VHHA.

There were eight new hospitalizations reported locally over the last two days, including those of two residents in their 40s, two in their 60s, two in their 70s and two age 80 or older, according to VDH data.

Percent-positivity rate: The local percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests continued to tick down on Sunday and is now 11.5%.

It is the third-highest in Northern Virginia, with the Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 15.4%, up slightly from Friday, and Loudoun County reporting 11.6%, up from 10.7% on Friday.

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which has been extended until Feb. 28.

School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools remain in the "highest risk" range in two of the three core metrics on the CDC scale but are also in the "lowest risk" range in two of three secondary metrics.

Among core metrics: The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the "highest risk" category at 709.6, up from 694.9 on Friday.

The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 12.5%, which is also in the "highest-risk" category.

Among secondary metrics: the percent change in cases from this week to last last is negative 32.7%, which is in the "lowest risk" range.

The percentage of hospital beds filled in the region remained below 80% on Friday at 79.5%, which is in the "lowest risk" range, while 10.9% of local hospital beds are filled with COVID-19 patients, which is in the "moderate risk" range.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita rose dipped to 40.8 on Sunday, which is still considered "very high," but is down from about 60 a few weeks ago.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Friday from a low of 14.9 in Manassas Park to a high of 54.2 in Stafford County.

Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 40.8 on Sunday, up slightly from 39 on Friday. 

ZIP Code data: Average daily cases remained steady in most local ZIP Codes during the week ending Feb. 13.

Average daily cases rose in seven local ZIP Codes: 20111, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181 and 22134.

Average daily cases fell in seven local ZIP Codes: 20109, 20110, 20112, 20119, 20187, 22026 and 22191. Average daily cases were unchanged in six local ZIP Codes: 20111, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181 and 22134.

Friday, Feb. 5: Prince William reports another 3 lost to COVID-19, raising the February death toll to 11

The Prince William Health District reported another three deaths due to COVID-19 on Friday, bringing the number of local deaths reported in February to 11 and the overall local death toll to 365, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

The latest victims were three women, all residents of Prince William County. One was in her 60s, while two were age 80 or older. Two were White and one was Black, according to VDH data.

The losses follow eight other local deaths reported on Wednesday and Thursday.

The victims reported earlier in the week included five women and three men. Three were in their 50s, one was in their 60s, two were in their 70s and two were age 80 or older.

Statewide, 82 deaths were reported on Friday. Virginia is losing an average of 50 people a day from COVID-19, according to the VDH.

Cases: Virginia added 5,069 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, an increase from about 3,000 reported in each of the last two days. 

The Prince William Health District reported 285 new cases on Friday, including 264 in Prince William County, 16 in Manassas and five in Manassas Park. The local health district reported fewer than 200 cases in each of the last two days.

Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state continued to tick down on Friday with 2,363 people hospitalized Friday, down 81 from Thursday.

Of those hospitalized, 462 patients were in intensive care units, down 24 from Thursday. There were 294 on ventilators, unchanged from Thursday, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

About 35% of the state's ventilators were in use and 82% of the state's ICU beds were occupied on Thursday, according to the VHHA.

There were two new hospitalizations reported locally Friday, including those of one child age 9 or under and one resident in their 50s, according to VDH data.

Percent-positivity rate: The local percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests continued to fall locally on Friday and is now 11.7%. It is the second-highest in Northern Virginia, with the Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 15.2%, up slightly from Thursday.

Loudoun County reported a rate of 10.7% on Friday, while Virginia as a whole reported a percent-positivity rate of 10.8%.

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which has been extended until Feb. 28.

School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools on Friday remained in the "highest risk" range in two of the three core metrics on the CDC scale but showed improvement in the secondary metrics.

Among core metrics: The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the "highest risk" category at 694.9, down slightly from Thursday.

The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 12.8%, which is also in the "highest-risk" category but also down from about 14% to 15% in recent weeks.

The percent change in cases from this week to last last is negative 26.7%, which is in the "lowest risk" range.

The percentage of hospital beds filled in the region remained below 80% on Friday at 74.3%, which is in the "lowest risk" range, while 11.7% of local hospital beds are filled with COVID-19 patients, which is in the moderate risk range.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita rose slightly on Friday to 42, up from 40.2 per 100,000 residents on Thursday.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Friday from a low of 11.6 in Manassas Park to a high of 50.8 in Stafford County. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 39.5 on Friday, down from 41.6 on Wednesday.

ZIP Code data: Already hard-hit Woodbridge ZIP Code 22193 saw the most new cases reported on Friday with 52.

Average daily cases mostly dropped across the county this week, largely due to the spike of more than 1,500 cases reported on Sunday, Jan. 17. This week's daily case numbers, while still high, were much lower by comparison.

The average number of daily cases reported in the last week dropped in 17 of 20 local ZIP Codes, including 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20119, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 20187, 22025 and 22026.

Daily averages stayed the same in two ZIP Codes: 20134 and 20143. 

Average daily case numbers rose in only one ZIP Code: 22172.

Thursday, Feb. 4: Prince William reports another 4 lost to COVID-19, raising the February death toll to 8

The Prince William Health District reported another four deaths due to COVID-19 on Thursday, bringing the number of local deaths reported in February to eight and the overall local death toll to 362, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

The first four deaths of the month were reported Wednesday, those of two men and two women. Two were in their 50s, while one was in their 70s and one was age 80 or older. 

The latest victims, whose deaths were reported Thursday, included three women and one man, one in their 50s, one in their 60s, one in their 70s and one age 80 or older. One was White, one was Latino and two were Black. All were residents of Prince William County, according to VDH data.

The local health district, which includes Prince William County, Manassas and Manassas Park, reported 29 deaths in the last week of January and 56 for the entire month of January, which was the deadliest month so far of the 11-month pandemic.

Statewide, 75 deaths were reported on Thursday. Virginia is losing an average of 49 people a day from COVID-19, according to the VDH.

Cases: Virginia added 3,059 new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday, a slight increase from the 2,959 added on Wednesday, Feb. 3.

The number added in the Prince William Health District was again not immediately clear on Thursday, as VDH reported vastly different case numbers for the local health district on different parts of its COVID-19 website.

A request for explanation had not yet been answered by VDH officials as of Thursday afternoon. 

Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state continued to tick down on Thursday with 2,444 people hospitalized across the state, down 101 from Wednesday.

Of those hospitalized, 486 patients were in intensive care units across the state, down 14 from Wednesday. There were 294 on ventilators, down 15 from Wednesday, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

About 35% of the state's ventilators were in use and 81% of the state's ICU beds were occupied on Wednesday, according to the VHHA.

There were six new hospitalizations reported locally Thursday, including those of three residents in their 40s, one in their 50s and two in their 70s, according to VDH data.

Percent-positivity rate: The local percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests continued to fall locally on Thursday and is now 12.2%. It is the second-highest in Northern Virginia, with Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 15.1%, down slightly from Wednesday.

Loudoun County reported a rate of 10.4% on Thursday, while Virginia as a whole reported a percent-positivity rate of 11%.

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which he extended on Wednesday until Feb. 28.

School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools on Thursday remained in the "highest risk" range in two of the three core metrics on the CDC scale but showed improvement in the secondary metrics.

Among core metrics: The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the "highest risk" category at 698.9. But slightly higher than Wednesday, but still down nearly 50% over the last few weeks.

The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 13.1%, which is also in the "highest-risk" category but also down from about 14 to 15% in recent weeks.

The percent change in cases from this week to last last is negative 32.6%, which is in the "lowest risk" range.

The percentage of hospital beds filled in the region dropped to 80% on Thursday, which is in the "lowest risk" range, while 11.8% of local hospital beds are filled with COVID-19 patients, also in the moderate risk range.

Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita also ticked down on Thursday to 40. 2 from 42.1 per 100,000 residents on Wednesday.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Wednesday from a low of 9.9 in Manassas Park to a high of 47.7 in the City of Manassas. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 38.1 on Thursday, down from 41.6 on Wednesday.

ZIP Code data: Already hard-hit Woodbridge ZIP Code 22193 saw the most new cases on Thursday with 34. It was followed by ZIP Code 20110 with 22 and 20109 with 20.

Average daily cases mostly dropped across the county this week, largely due to the spike of more than 1,500 cases reported on Sunday, Jan. 17. This week's daily case numbers, while still high, were much lower by comparison.

The average number of daily cases reported in the last week dropped in 17 of 20 local ZIP Codes, including 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20119, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 20187, 22025 and 22026.

Daily averages stayed the same in two ZIP Codes: 20134 and 20143. 

Average daily case numbers rose in only one ZIP Code: 22172.

Wednesday, Feb. 3: Prince William reports 4 more lost to COVID-19

The Prince William Health District has reported its first four deaths of February 2021 due to COVID-19, raising the local death toll to 358 as the pandemic enters its 11th month. 

The latest local victims include two women and two men; two were Black and two were White. All were residents of Prince William County. Two were in their 50s, one was in their 70s and one was 80 or older, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

Aside from the ongoing grim news of additional deaths, there were numerous improvements in the local pandemic metrics on Wednesday, Feb. 3.

While still well above the targeted 5%, the percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests continued to tick down and was 13% on Wednesday. 

Also trending lower is the rate of infection per capita, which was 42 in Prince William County, 47 in Manassas and just 9.1 in Manassas Park as of Wednesday, Feb. 3, according to VDH data.

Cases: Virginia added 2,959 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, Feb. 3. The number added in the Prince William Health District was not immediately clear, as VDH reported 136 local cases on one part of its website and 292 on another. 

The VDH was looking into the discrepancy Wednesday afternoon at the Prince William Times' request.

Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state continued to tick down with 2,545 on Wednesday, Feb. 3, down 146 from Saturday, Jan. 30.

Of those hospitalized, 500 patients were in intensive care units across the state, down 11 from Saturday. There were 309 on ventilators, which was unchanged from over the weekend, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

About 36% of the state's ventilators were in use and 81% of the state's ICU beds were occupied on Wednesday, according to the VHHA.

There were three new hospitalizations reported locally over the last two days, including those of one resident in their 30s, one in their 40s and one in their 60s, according to VDH data.

Percent-positivity rate: The local percent-positivity rate is the second-highest in Northern Virginia, with Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 15.6%, up from 14.8% over the weekend.

Loudoun County reported a rate of 11% on Wednesday, down from 13.3% over the weekend.

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which he extended on Wednesday until Feb. 28.

School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools on Wednesday remained in the "highest risk" range in two of the three core metrics on the CDC scale.

Among secondary metrics, one was in the "lowest risk" range, while two were in the "moderate risk" range.

The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the "highest risk" category at 686.5. But that's down nearly 50% over the last few weeks.

The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 13.2%, which is also in the "highest-risk" category but also down from about 14 to 15% in recent weeks.

The percent change in cases from this week to last last is negative 24.8%, which is in the "lowest risk" range.

The percentage of hospital beds filled in the region remained at 81.9% on Wednesday, which is in the "moderate risk" range, while 12.3% of local hospital beds are filled with COVID-19 patients, also in the moderate risk range.

The county reported 42.1 per 100,000 residents on Wednesday, down from 62.4 over the weekend.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Wednesday from a low of 9.1 in Manassas Park to a high of 51.2 in Stafford County. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 41.6 on Wednesday, down from 56 on Saturday.

ZIP Code data: Already hard-hit Woodbridge ZIP Code 22193 saw the most new cases on Thursday with 22. Still that's a much smaller daily number than in recent weeks.

Average daily cases mostly dropped across the county this week, largely due to the spike of more than 1,500 cases reported on Sunday, Jan. 17. This week's daily case numbers, while still high, were much lower by comparison.

The average number of daily cases reported in the last week dropped in 17 of 20 local ZIP Codes, including 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20119, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 20187, 22025 and 22026.

Daily averages stayed the same in two ZIP Codes: 20134 and 20143. 

Average daily case numbers rose in only one ZIP Code: 22172.

Saturday, Jan. 30: Prince William loses 11 more to COVID-19 in 2 days, raising the January death toll to 56

COVID-19 is continuing to exact a deadly toll on Virginia and the Prince William Health District. Another 11 local deaths were reported over the last two days, including those one resident in their 40s and two in their 50s, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

The latest deaths come on top of 18 already reported this week, bringing the total number of local deaths reported this week to a whopping 29. The number of deaths reported in January alone is now 56 in the Prince William Health District, which includes the county, Manassas and Manassas Park.

January 2021 has been the most deadly month locally of the now nearly 11-month-old pandemic. The rising local numbers reflect the rising number of COVID-19 deaths reported across Virginia and the nation this month. 

Virginia added another 141 deaths over the past two days, bringing the state's pandemic death toll to 6,449.

Across the state, 1,417 deaths have so far been reported in January 2021. Virginia is now losing an average of 53 residents a day to the ongoing  pandemic, according to VDH data.

Locally, the latest fatalities included those of eight men and three women; one was in their 40s, two were in their 50s, one was in their 60s, three were in their 70s and four were age 80 and older, according to VDH data.

All were residents of Prince William County. Three were White, six were Latino and two were Asian or Pacific Islander.

Cases: Virginia added more than 4,000 new COVID-19 cases on Saturday, with 4,309, including 369 in the Prince William Health District. 

The new cases reported on Saturday included 341 in Prince William County and 28 in the City of Manassas. There were no new cases reported   in Manassas Park.

Of cases for which age information was available, residents in their 40s reported the most cases on Saturday with 47. They were followed residents in their 50s with 46 cases and those in their 20s with 42.

Kids and teens ages 19 and under reported 55 new cases on Saturday with 24 reported among kids ages 9 and under and 31 reported by residents between the ages of 10 and 19.

Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state remained below 3,000 on Saturday, numbering 2,691, down 15 from Thursday.

Of those hospitalized, 511 patients were in intensive care units across the state, down four from Thursday. There were 309 on ventilators, down 13, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

About 36% of the state's ventilators were in use and 82% of the state's ICU beds were occupied on Thursday, according to the VHHA.

There were nine new hospitalizations reported locally over the last two days, including those of one resident in their 40s, three in their 50s, three in their 60s and two age 80 or older, according to VDH data.

Percent-positivity rate: The Prince William Health District's seven-day average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests remained 14.1% on Saturday, unchanged from Thursday.

The local percent-positivity rate is the second-highest in Northern Virginia, with Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 14.8%. Loudoun County was close behind Prince William with 13.3%. 

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which he extended on Wednesday until Feb. 28.

Cases per 100,000 residents: The Prince William County again reported the third-highest rate of COVID-19 infections per capita in the Northern Virginia region on Jan. 30.

The local health district reported 62.4 infections per 100,000 residents, up from 59.6 on Thursday.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Saturday from a low of 9.1 in Manassas Park to a high of 74.7 in Loudoun County. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 56.3 Saturday, down from 57.1 on Thursday.

ZIP Code data: Already hard-hit Woodbridge ZIP Code 22193 saw the most new cases on Saturday with 72.

Average daily cases mostly dropped across the county this week, largely due to the spike of more than 1,500 cases reported on Sunday, Jan. 17. This week's daily case numbers, while still high, were much lower by comparison.

The average number of daily cases reported in the last week dropped in 17 of 20 local ZIP Codes, including 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20119, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 20187, 22025 and 22026.

Daily averages stayed the same in two ZIP Codes: 20134 and 20143. 

Average daily case numbers rose in only one ZIP Code: 22172.

Thursday, Jan. 28: Prince William loses 7 more to COVID-19, raising the January death toll to 45

Another seven local deaths due to COVID-19 were reported on Thursday, bringing the total number of local deaths reported this week to 18 and the January death toll to 45, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

January 2021 has been the most deadly month locally of the now nearly 11-month-old pandemic. The rising local numbers reflect the rising number of COVID-19 deaths reported across Virginia and the nation this month. The Prince William Health District's total death toll is now 343.

Virginia added another 80 deaths on Thursday, bringing the state's pandemic death toll to 6,308.

Across the state, 1,276 deaths have so far been reported in January 2021. Virginia is now losing an average of 53 residents a day to the ongoing  pandemic, according to VDH data.

Locally, the latest fatalities included those of six men and one woman, three in their 60s, three in their 70s and one age 80 or older. All were residents of Prince William County. Five were White and one was Latino. Race and ethnicity data was not released for one of the recent victims.  

Cases: Virginia added more than 5,000 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, with 5,121, including 244 in the Prince William Health District. 

The new cases reported on Thursday included 231 in Prince William County, 11 in the City of Manassas and two in Manassas Park.

Residents in their 40s reported the most cases on Thursday with 72. They were followed residents in their 50s with 53 cases and those in their 20s with 49.

Kids and teens ages 19 and under reported 54 new cases on Thursday with 25 reported among kids ages 9 and under and 29 reported by residents between the ages of 10 and 19.

Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state remained below 3,000 on Thursday, numbering 2,706, down 162 from Wednesday.

There are 527 people hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Northern Virginia, down 38; 681 in Eastern Virginia, down 50; 684 in Central Virginia, down 33; 375 in Northwest Virginia, down 24; and 434 in Southwest Virginia, down 18.

Of those hospitalized, 515 patients were in intensive care units across the state, down 22 from Wednesday. There were 322 on ventilators, down 10, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

About 36% of the state's ventilators were in use and 82% of the state's ICU beds were occupied on Thursday, according to the VHHA.

There were four new hospitalizations reported locally on Thursday, those of one resident in their 40s, one in their 50s and two in their 60s, according to VDH data.

Percent-positivity rate: The Prince William Health District's seven-day average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests was 14.1% on Thursday, up from 13.7% on Thursday.

The local percent-positivity rate is the second-highest in Northern Virginia, with Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 14.3%. Loudoun County was close behind Prince William with 13.7%. 

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which he extended on Wednesday until Feb. 28.

Cases per 100,000 residents: The Prince William County again reported the third-highest rate of COVID-19 infections per capita in the Northern Virginia region on Jan. 28.

The local health district reported 59.6 infections per 100,000 residents, up from 56 on Wednesday.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Thursday from a low of 15.7 in Manassas Park to a high of 79 in Loudoun County. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 57.1 on Thursday, up from 55.1 on Wednesday.

School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools on Thursday remained in the "highest risk" range in two of five metrics on the CDC scale and in the "moderate risk" range in two of the three secondary metrics.

The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the "highest risk" category at 1,125, down 13 from Wednesday. The number is more than five times the 200 needed to qualify as "highest risk."

The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 15%, which is also in the "highest-risk" category and remains unchanged from Wednesday.

The percent of hospital beds filled in the region rose above 80% on Wednesday with 82.5%, which is in the "moderate risk" range.

ZIP Code data: Already hard-hit Woodbridge ZIP Code 22192 saw the most new cases on Thursday with 44.

Reflecting the spike of new COVID-19 cases early last week, the seven-day average number of new daily cases rose significantly in 14 of 20 Prince William area ZIP Codes over the past week.

Daily cases were up an average of 60% in those ZIP Codes, which included: 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 22025, and 22026.

Daily averages stayed the same in four ZIP Codes: 20119, 20143, 20187 and 22125. 

Cases dropped in only two ZIP Codes: 22134 and 22172.

Wednesday, Jan. 28: Prince William reports 4 more local deaths to COVID-19, bringing January toll to 38

The deaths of four more local residents due to COVID-19 were reported Wednesday, just one day after seven fatalities were reported in Prince William County and Manassas.

The reported losses of 11 local residents in just two days' time has contributed to making January 2021 one of the most deadly months of the pandemic in the Prince William Health District. A total of 38 local deaths have been reported this month as of Wednesday, Jan. 27. 

Virginia added 54 deaths on Wednesday, bringing the state's total pandemic death toll to 6,228.

Across the state, 1,196 deaths have so far been reported in January 2021. Virginia is now losing an average of 52 residents a day to the ongoing  pandemic, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

Locally, the latest fatalities included those of three men and one woman, one in their 60s and three in their 70s. All were residents of Prince William County. Two were White and one was Latino. Race and ethnicity data was not released for one of the recent victims.  

Cases: Virginia added more than 5,000 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, with 5,227, including 299 in the Prince William Health District. 

The new cases reported on Wednesday included 278 in Prince William County and 21 in the City of Manassas. There were no new cases in Manassas Park.

Residents in their 50s reported the most cases on Wednesday with 51. They were followed residents in their 40s with 50 cases and those in their 30s with 44.

Kids and teens ages 19 and under reported 45 new cases on Wednesday with 21 reported among kids ages 9 and under and 24 reported by residents between the ages of 10 and 19.

Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state remained below 3,000 on Wednesday, numbering 2,868, which up 21 from Tuesday.

There are 565 people hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Northern Virginia, up 23 since Tuesday; 731 in Eastern Virginia, down 12; 717 in Central Virginia, down one; 399 in Northwest Virginia, up three; and 452 in Southwest Virginia, up three.

Of those hospitalized, 537 patients were in intensive care units across the state, down two from Tuesday. There were 332 on ventilators, up 14, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.

About 36% of the state's ventilators were in use and 84% of the state's ICU beds were occupied on Wednesday, a slight increase from Tuesday, according to the VHHA.

There were three new hospitalizations reported locally on Wednesday, those of residents in their 50s, 60s and 70s, according to VDH data.

Percent-positivity rate: The Prince William Health District's seven-day average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests was 13.7% on Wednesday, down from 13.9% Tuesday.

The local percent-positivity rate is the second-highest in Northern Virginia, with Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 14.1%. Loudoun County was close behind Prince William with 13.7%. 

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which he extended on Wednesday until Feb. 28.

Cases per 100,000 residents: Prince William County reported the third-highest rate of COVID-19 infections per capita in the Northern Virginia region on Wednesday, Jan. 27.

The local health district reported 56 infections per 100,000 residents, up from 54 on Tuesday.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Tuesday from a low of 15.7 in Manassas Park to a high of 74.4 in Loudoun County. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 55.3 on Wednesday, a slight increase from Tuesday.

School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools on Tuesday remained in the "highest risk" range  in two of five metrics on the CDC scale and in the "moderate risk" range in two of the three secondary metrics.

The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the "highest risk" category at 1,138, up 18 from Tuesday. The number is more than five times the 200 needed to qualify as "highest risk."

The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 15%, which is also in the "highest-risk" category, but slightly lower than Tuesday's 15.1%.

The percent of hospital beds filled in the region rose above 80% on Wednesday with 82.7%, which is in the "moderate risk" range.

The percent of hospital beds filled with COVID-19 patients is 14.8%, also in the "moderate risk" range. 

ZIP Code data: Already hard-hit ZIP Codes in Woodbridge saw the most new cases on Wednesday.

Woodbridge ZIP Code 22193 added 58 cases, while 22191 reported 42 new cases and 22192 reported 36 new cases. 

Reflecting the spike of new COVID-19 cases early last week, the seven-day average number of new daily cases rose significantly in 14 of 20 Prince William area ZIP Codes over the past week.

Daily cases were up an average of 60% in those ZIP Codes, which included: 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 22025, and 22026.

Daily averages stayed the same in four ZIP Codes: 20119, 20143, 20187 and 22125. 

Cases dropped in only two ZIP Codes: 22134 and 22172.

Tuesday, Jan. 26: Prince William reports 7 deaths due to COVID-19, adds 316 cases

The deaths of seven more local residents due to COVID-19 were reported Tuesday, a day that saw Virginia add 93 more deaths to the pandemic's toll -- the second-highest daily death tally since the pandemic began.

Virginia's death toll reached 6,174 on Tuesday, Jan. 26. The Prince William Health District's death toll is now 332.  

The latest local victims include six residents of Prince William County and one of City of Manassas. They included six men and one woman; including one White resident, four Latino residents and two Black residents.

One was in their 40s, two were in their 50s, two were in their 60s, one was in their 70s and one was age 80 or older, according to Virginia Department of Health data. 

Cases: Virginia added 4,707 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, including 316 in the Prince William Health District. Both numbers were lower than the more than 6,000 new cases reported across the state on Monday and more than 500 in the Prince William Health District.

The new cases reported on Tuesday included 297 in Prince William County, 17 in the City of Manassas and two in two in Manassas Park.

Residents in their 20s again reported the most cases on Tuesday with 84. They were followed residents in their 30s with 50 cases and those in their 40s with 39.

Kids and teens ages 19 and under reported 64 new cases on Tuesday with 34 reported among kids ages 9 and under and 30 reported by residents between the ages of 10 and 19.

Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state remained below 3,000 on Tuesday, numbering 2,847, down 45 from Monday.

There are 542 people hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Northern Virginia, down eight since Monday; 743 in Eastern Virginia, down 26; 718 in Central Virginia, down 14; 396 in Northwest Virginia, down five; and 449 in Southwest Virginia, down 15.

Of those hospitalized, 539 patients were in intensive care units across the state, down 15 from Monday. There were 316 on ventilators, down eight, according to the Virginia Healthcare and Hospital Association.

About 35% of the state's ventilators were in use and 83% of the state's ICU beds were occupied on Tuesday, a slight increase from Monday, according to the VHHA.

There were two new hospitalizations reported locally on Tuesday, those of two residents in their 60s, according to VDH data.

Percent-positivity rate: The Prince William Health District's percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests was 13.9% on Tuesday, down from 14% Monday.

The local percent-positivity rate remains the highest in Northern Virginia, with Loudoun County (13.4%) and the Rappahannock and Rappahannock-Rapidan health districts (13.8%), following close behind.

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10.

Cases per 100,000 residents: Prince William County reported the third-highest rate of COVID-19 infections per capita in the Northern Virginia region on Tuesday, Jan. 25.

The local health district reported 54.9 infections per 100,000 residents, down from 55.3 on Monday.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Tuesday from a low of 17.3 in Manassas Park to a high of 67.6 in Loudoun County. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 54.1 on Tuesday, a slight increase from Monday.

School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools on Tuesday remained in the "highest risk" range  in two of five metrics on the CDC scale.

The county's ratings improved in some metrics, including the percent change in number of cases since last week, which showed a decrease of 47.7%, now in the "lowest risk" range, and in the number of hospital beds filled in the region, which is now below 80%.

Both "secondary metrics" are in the green or "lowest risk" ranges.

The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the "highest risk" category at 1,120, up seven from Monday. The number is more than five times the 200 needed to qualify as "highest risk."

The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 15.1%, which is also in the "highest-risk" category, but slightly lower than Monday's 15.7%.

The percent of hospital beds filled with COVID-19 patients is 14.7%, which is in the "moderate risk" range. 

ZIP Code data: Already hard-hit ZIP Codes in Woodbridge and Manassas saw the most new cases on Tuesday.

Woodbridge ZIP Code 22193 added 52 cases; Manassas-area ZIP Codes 20109 and 20110 added 44 new cases; and Woodbridge ZIP Code 22191 added 43 cases.

Reflecting the spike of new COVID-19 cases early last week, the seven-day average number of new daily cases rose significantly in 14 of 20 Prince William area ZIP Codes over the past week.

Daily cases were up an average of 60% in those ZIP Codes, which included: 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 22025, and 22026.

Daily averages stayed the same in four ZIP Codes: 20119, 20143, 20187 and 22125. 

Cases dropped in only two ZIP Codes: 22134 and 22172.

Monday, Jan. 25: Prince William reports more than 500 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths

New cases of COVID-19 in the Prince William Health District rose to more than 500 on Monday, an increase from lower daily case numbers posted over the past week.

The local health district, which includes Prince William County, Manassas and Manassas Park, reported 523 new cases on Monday, Jan. 25, one of the largest daily totals since the start of the pandemic.

Across the state, a total of 6,172 new cases were reported on Monday, which was also a sharp increase from previous days. Virginia also reported 52 additional hospitalizations and three more deaths.

Locally, however, there are some signs that COVID-19 metrics are at least stabilizing after post-holiday spikes, even if the rate of infection per capita remains "very high," as defined by the RAND Corporation.

A seven-day average rate of infection per 100,000 residents of more than 20 is considered "very high." Prince William County is reporting a per-capita rate of infection of 55.3 cases per 100,000 residents, which not only qualifies as "very high" but remains the highest in Northern Virginia.

The seven-day average of new daily cases has fallen to 258.9, however, down from 499 just five days ago. Meanwhile the percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests is now 14%, down from close to 20% last week. Still, the target percent-positivity rate is 5%.

Local deaths: A total of 12 local deaths due to COVID-19 were reported over the past week, bringing the local death toll of the pandemic to 325, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

Cases: Of the 523 new COVID-19 cases reported in the local health district on Monday, 479 were in Prince William County, 41 were in Manassas and three in Manassas Park.

Residents in their 20s reported the most cases Monday with 47. They were followed by residents age 10 to 19 with 38 cases and then by residents in their 30s and 40s with 31 new cases in both age groups.  

Kids and teens ages 19 and under reported 51 new cases with kids age 9 and under reporting 13 new cases and those between the ages of 10 and 19 reporting 38, according to VDH data.

Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state remained below 3,000 on Monday, numbering 2,892.

There are 550 people hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Northern Virginia, down 27 since Saturday; 769 in Eastern Virginia, up 53; 704 in Central Virginia, down eight; 401 in Northwest Virginia, down 22; and 464 in Southwest Virginia, down 32.

Of those hospitalized, 554 patients were in intensive care units across the state, down 13 from Saturday. There were 324 on ventilators, up four, according to the Virginia Healthcare and Hospital Association.

About 34% of the state's ventilators were in use and 82% of the state's ICU beds were occupied on Monday, a slight decline from over the weekend, according to the VHHA.

There were three new hospitalizations reported locally on Monday, including those of residents  in their 40s, 50s and one age 80 or older, according to VDH data.

Percent-positivity rate: The Prince William Health District's percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests was 14% on Monday, down from 18.3% last week.

The local percent-positivity rate is once again the highest in Northern Virginia, with Loudoun County (13.7%) and the Rappahannock and Rappahannock-Rapidan Health Districts (13.5%), following close behind.

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10.

Cases per 100,000 residents: Prince William County reported the highest rate of COVID-19 infections per capita in the Northern Virginia region on Monday, Jan. 25, but the number is improving.

The local health district reported 55.3 infections per 100,000 residents on Monday, down from about 92 over the weekend.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Monday from a low of 18.2 in Manassas Park to a high of 55.3 in Prince William. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 53.8 on Monday, which was also an improvement from the 62 reported over the weekend.

School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools on Monday remained in the "highest risk" range  in two of five metrics on the CDC scale.

The county's ratings improved in some metrics, including the percent change in number of cases since last week, which showed a decrease of 46.6%, now in the "lowest risk" range, and in the number of hospital beds filled in the region, which is now below 80%.

Both "secondary metrics" are in the green or "lowest risk" ranges.

The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the "highest risk" category at 1,113, which is more than five times the 200 needed to qualify as "highest risk."

The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 15.7%, which is also in the "highest-risk" category.

The percent of hospital beds filled with COVID-19 patients is 14.6%, which is in the "moderate risk" range. 

Reflecting the spike of new COVID-19 cases early last week, the seven-day average number of new daily cases rose significantly in 14 of 20 Prince William area ZIP Codes over the past week.

Daily cases were up an average of 60% in those ZIP Codes, which included: 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 22025, and 22026.

Daily averages stayed the same in four ZIP Codes: 20119, 20143, 20187 and 22125. 

Cases dropped in only two ZIP Codes: 22134 and 22172.

Saturday, Jan. 23: Prince William reports 12 more deaths due to COVID-19 over the past week

Prince William lost 12 more residents to COVID-19 this past week, while adding more than 2,400 cases and 16 more hospitalizations, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

New COVID-19 cases spiked in the Prince William Health District and statewide last Sunday, Jan. 17, which saw the highest number of new daily cases since the pandemic began. There were more than 9,900 new cases reported across state on Jan. 17, including more than 1,300 in the Prince William Health District. The number was partly the result of a backlog of cases associated with a new state reporting system, officials said.

As of Saturday, Jan. 23, new daily cases were still averaging more than 5,600 across the state, and more than 430 in Prince William County.

The actual number of cases reported on Saturday, however, was down to 196 in the Prince William Health District and down to 4,904 across Virginia.

Prince William is now one of 11 counties in Virginia seeing "a slow growth" of new cases, according to the latest analysis from the University of Virginia's Biocomplexity Institute.

There was some good news in the UVA Biocomplexity Institute's weekly report: The holiday surge in new cases was less severe than expected.

Also, Prince William Health District's percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests has fallen over the past week and is no longer the highest in Northern Virginia.

Less positive was that the county's health district's rate of infection, now 92.3 per 100,000 residents, remains the highest in Northern Virginia.

Also, the state is now bracing for the new variants of the novel coronavirus, which could result in a 40% increase in transmissibility rate, the UVA Biocomplexity institute says.

The institute is again reporting both best- and worst-case scenarios for the pandemic in the coming weeks. The current adapted model projects that weekly cases will peak at more than 50,000 in Virginia during the week ending February 14.

If new variants of the virus become dominant, however, which is expected in the U.S. by March, new weekly cases could sustain a peak of more than 65,000 new weekly cases for 10 weeks, from late February to late April, the report says.

"For a virus like COVID-19, increased transmissibility is very concerning," the report says. "More people are likely to be infected, resulting in a corresponding increase in illness and deaths. Additionally, [the new variants] spread more quickly, increasing pressure on hospitals, healthcare workers and funeral homes already strained by COVID-19." 

Local deaths: The latest local deaths reported since Saturday, Jan. 16, include those of nine women and three men.

Two were residents of Manassas while 10 were residents of Prince William County. They included one resident in their 30s, one in their 60s, five in their 70s and five age 80 or older.

Cases: After spiking to more than 1,300 on Sunday, Jan. 17, new daily cases reported in the Prince William Health District ranged between 200 to 300 over the past week and totaled more than 2,400.

Residents in their 20s reported the most cases over the past week with 502. They were followed by residents in their 30s, who reported 483 cases.

Kids and teens ages 19 and under reported 409 new cases with kids age 9 and under reporting 156 cases and those between the ages of 10 and 19 reporting 253, according to VDH data.

Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state dipped below 3,000 on Saturday for the first time in weeks. 

On Saturday, there were 2,923 people hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Virginia. The number includes 577 in Northern Virginia, down 14 since last week; 716 in Eastern Virginia, down 55; 711 in Central Virginia, up 27; 423 in Northwest Virginia, up 47; and 496 in Southwest Virginia, down 105.

Of those hospitalized, 567 patients were in intensive care units across the state, up six from Jan. 16. There were 320 on ventilators, down 20, according to the Virginia Healthcare and Hospital Association.

About 35% of the state's ventilators were in use and 83% of the state's ICU beds were occupied on Saturday, which is unchanged from last week, according to the VHHA.

There were 16 new hospitalizations reported locally over the past week, including those of three residents in their 30s, four in their 40s, three in their 50s, one in their 60s, four in their 70s and one age 80 or older, according to VDH data.

Percent-positivity rate: The Prince William Health District's percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests was 14.1% on Saturday, down from 18.3% last week.

The local percent-positivity rate now ranks second to the 14.5% reported by Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties.

The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10.

Cases per 100,000 residents: Prince William County reported the highest highest rate of COVID-19 infections per capita in the Northern Virginia region on Saturday, Jan. 23, with 92.3 infections per 100,000 residents, up from a rate of 59.8 last week.

COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Saturday from a low of 26.4 in Manassas Park to a high of 92.3 in Prince William. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 65.9 on Saturday.

ZIP Codes: Reflecting the spike of new COVID-19 cases earlier in the week, the seven-day average number of new daily cases rose significantly in 14 of 20 Prince William area ZIP Codes over the past week.

Daily cases were up an average of 60% in those ZIP Codes, which included: 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 22025, and 22026.

Daily averages stayed the same in four ZIP Codes: 20119, 20143, 20187 and 22125. 

Cases dropped in only two ZIP Codes: 22134 and 22172.

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(58) comments

Omarndc72

Media will now go back to the Wuhan flu to distract the public from the Biden Chinese scandals. Don't belive the Chinese propaganda. The vaccine is out.

someone

Remember H1N1? Guess how many American "cases" there were in the U.S.? SIXTY MILLION. That's 60,000,000. During that time, Obama & Biden were in the White House. They did next-to-nothing about it. You should think about that.

JimiWeaver4

Yes there were 60,000,000 H1N1 cases in 2009, but only 12,469 deaths

The Corona Virus has already caused almost 300,000 deaths and is officillay the current leading cause of death in the USA according to both the CDC & the White House Corona Virus task force.

someone

I can't believe the Fake News didn't say that RBG died of COVID. They let a crisis go to waste.

ed1

Maybe because it's not fake news? Perhaps you should take a more critical look at your own sources of information.

zcxnissan

6% of 186k is.

Catharpin411

Once this China Virus cant be used as a Socialist Demo political football the China Virus will simply go away.

IMPORTANT NEWS NOT FOUND HERE: CDC declares that ONLY 6% of the deaths are FROM the China Virus...the balance are deaths from thing like cancer and stroke but the patient MAY have also had the China Virus...6%...the CDC has been LYING to us for months...ya lets all hail, Fauci. Bet he resigns soon and goes to work for Gates. Remember that we have several Socialist Demos that moved sick people in with Senior Citizens and KILLED them. Can't wait for the class action suit against them.

Once again this is simply a terrible article, poorly written and even more poorly researched.

Stop printing lies as it makes you look like China is sending you cash to print such lies

Omarndc72

Same old socialists propaganda with this newspaper. Garbage.

Omarndc72

Is time to move on from this covid aka flu. Let's get back to normal and live with it. Enough of the scare tactics. We didn't shut the economy for bird flu, swine flu , or ebola or even the flu pandemic. Does anyone remember this happening?? No. So let's cut the bull sh×t and get back to normal.

JosephGeorge4Neabsco

Show the number of deaths and speed of transmission for each of those events. If you cannot, live your life and stfu.

Catharpin411

A few passing thoughts:

1. it is such bad journalism keeping this article as long as it is...NO ONE is reading it all..you earn an F

2.notice all the young rioters, looters and protestors getting sick...they earn an "S" for stupidity

3. notice that the recovery rate is now over 99%...yes lets please put the thumbscrews to the entire state with a 99% recovery rate

4. notice if you will that the China Virus now cures cancer and stroke to name a few as doctors move to ID the China Virus as the bad guy so they can get more kickback money,

5. let's are sure to close schools since the Union says so

6. the taxpayer will make out well since all that money not spent by the schools will be extra cash now. I mean they aren't going to simply spend it willy nilly right...LOL

7. let's be sure to punish the whole state for what NOVA Richmond and Hampton do

8. VA is soooo poorly run and so under the thumb of the Unions and Bloomberg...it has become a grotesque joke

zcxnissan

Preach it Catharpin411. This state is too far gone on corruption now. It's inbred in Progressives.

someone

Yes. Kathleen Corn-Filler is a total socialist from New York.

zcxnissan

Notice the recent rise in cases in younger people due to the protest/riot spike.

zcxnissan

As well as no appreciable rise in deaths or hospitalizations. Despite the spike in cases caused by the protests/riots. Pretty much a spike nationwide in all the areas where their were large protests/riots.

Omarndc72

Once the covid scam starts to go away, the race and riots will continue, when that slows down, back to the covid nonsense.

Marty

Instead of a mile long article, one table with basic info would provide the necessary information. Total number of infections, % hospitalization, % death. Overall and daily. And by age groups.Such table would fit in the computer screen.

zcxnissan

Sad part is it truly peaked in April. Gov. Blackface dragged it out for political gain just like the mask edict, months after he should have done it. Now we have hot, warm and humid temperatures and sunlight the worst things for a virus and yet we have to wear masks in certain businesses. Good thing it's only enforceable by the health dept.

RaiderRider

number of cases is irrelevant as there is more testing. How about telling us about the hospitalization rate instead.

Marty

These number are pretty much useless. Especially for 60 years would and below. Would be good to know their health status and other relevant info.

Heymarket

I am disappointed to see PrinceWilliamTimes stopped reporting COVID-19 statistics (cases/deaths) for the "Northern Virginia" area. This was quite useful. They kept reporting these as long as the numbers were going up. Once they started trending downward, they stopped. I was counting on them to finish telling the whole story.

zcxnissan

Still pretty much a nursing home disease unless you have comorbidities like diabetes and obesity while younger. I see with the protests that social distancing never really mattered. Today's progressive democrat, do as I say not as I do. See Gov. Northam about that one.

Jia7c

New here. I took a test last Tuesday/Wednesday in Manassas. They still haven’t called me. Called the people doing the test they state they don’t handle the results and someone will call this week.

Marty

If you feel OK, why would you take the test? 5 minutes later (figuratively speaking) you can get infected and the entire test was a waste of time.

Marty

Our inept governor and his staff should travel, to Florida to learn how to handle the virus.

InsideCommenter

This comment aged horribly Florida is an epicenter of the virus while Virginia is doing much better.

Omarndc72

Let businesses set their rules for dealing with the public in a safe manner till this blows over. Keep the beurocrats and politicians quarantine in Richmond, leave the rest of us alone.

zcxnissan

Its obvious it peaked in April by any metric. Obvious and deliberate overreaction by the Governor.

ed1

Peaked yes but due to the lack of appropriate measures by people out and about, it's declining at an alarming slow rate.

zcxnissan

Double peaked and has fallen off the map literally.

Marty

Looks like the governor is incapable of managing the virus crisis. Things are going from bad to worse by the day.

Omarndc72

You want to see how fast they open. ? Stop paying all of the state employees and politicians from governor down. Then you see how fast the politicians change.

Jameson

What is going to change by June 10th that will allow businesses to re-open. I can only imagine he will try to push the date back again.

someone

As more people are tested, more people will test positive for COVID-19. Flu viruses can hang-around for years. So, businesses could be closed for years.

zcxnissan

Its insane to do that you know that right?

someone

Yes. I know it's insane. Here we are, it's the end of August & the Democrats are still pushing their end-of-the-world narrative. It's crazy & CORRUPT.

joatmon

Because people are impatient and not taking it as seriously as they should. The stay at home order needs to be strictly enforced and more businesses need to shut down. I'm sorry, but McDonalds and Starbucks aren't essential. I see kids continuing to play on playgrounds and teenagers socializing because they are too dumb to realize the ramifications of their actions, nor do they care because they seem no threat to themselves. I received an email from a painting contractor the other day saying they are open and operating as an essential business. Really!? Stay home people or this will never get better!

Marty

We need to shut down 75% of the government, it is also not essential. Then we shall see how fast everything reopens. For the people who work at McDonalds, McDonalds is essential.

zcxnissan

Brad take your gibberish elsewhere fascist. More people are dying of murder, suicide and other health conditions because of quarantines and lock downs then this bad year flu. If you had practiced better eating and sanitary habits we probably wouldn't even have to discuss this you confused gender fool. Go see a psychiatrist.

Omarndc72

Its simple, go back to work. If your sick dont go out stay home till is passed. Stay away from elder people and wash your hands dont touch your face.

weouchere

InsideCommenter + Brad = Morons. Were you idiots calling him out for acting too soon before you started saying he acted too late like the rest of the Libtard party?

InsideCommenter

weouchere + zcxnissan = batshit crazy morons. I was never calling him out for acting too soon, he acted to late if we had started these measures two weeks earlier we would've been able to avoid 90% of the cases. The gas-lighting and lies you all do are just hilarious.

zcxnissan

Actually it has been noted by many medical studies that blacks are more susceptible because they have many underlying conditions like obesity, heart disease, diabetes, unhealthy lifestyles. Social distancing is not being practiced in the cities. That's obvious. See New York City. Also wondering why nursing home death statistics are not being reported properly. They are ginning up the totals trying to use any disaster for political advantage. InsideCommenter and Brad your TDS is obvious.

zcxnissan

The numbers in Chesterfield pale in comparison to Democrat cities and counties nationwide.

InsideCommenter

Ignorant statement of the article award has now been granted. A virus will spread where more people live, places that are more densely populated are naturally where the virus will spread faster. Despite this Democratic areas have been doing better than Red states who are whining like crybabies about not being able to get a haircut or dine in, a rise in cases in the state of Kentucky was attributed to fascist protests about the stay at home orders.

zcxnissan

Gaslighting was a mastery first aced by Tamanny Hall democrats and passed on from generation to generation. From there to democrat Klansmen and segregationists. Even up to the modern day. Nowadays they have turned more fascistic/communist with their green new deals and universal incomes. Not to mention the bs being slung about global warming/climate change, or whatever they will call it next week.

Brad

Look, people are dying because of this terrible disease. Why don't you take your lies and obsessions to some neo-conservative chat room, no one wants to read your gibberish here.

InsideCommenter

What is this hot pile of garbage you call an argument. All you do is name call talk about facts and logic not whatever you saw on Facebook.

ed1

All he said was people are dying. That is accurate. Nationally we've had more deaths in a month than from a year with flu and that's with all the social distancing. If you're not capable of taking in seriously or don't want to be stuck at home, please at least where a mask and avoid contact with others.

InsideCommenter

ed1,

I agree with the one who talked about the mortality of this grave disease. The one who I was rebutting was zcxnissan who constantly trolls and makes up lies.

Joemama

If these non-essential democrats would stay home it would stop spreading.

InsideCommenter

Maybe if the orange cheeto and his cultists would stay at their home instead of prancing around we could flatten the curve.

Brad

Or maybe if the orange cheeto and his cultists had done their job timely and correctly in the first place these unfortunates might not have been infected or died.

zcxnissan

I guess going to Chinatown doesn't count if your Nancy Pelosi. So many lies, it comes natural to the old bat. She's probably a super spreader. She probably used hydroxychloroquine as an antidote.

ed1

Why would she use an unproven, dangerous drug pushed by trump. Was he being sarcastic about that one as well or only about disinfectant and really bright lights?

zcxnissan

Funny how most of the deaths are in Democrat cities and states. I guess they don't follow rules or laws.

InsideCommenter

Chesterfield is heavily Republican and has many cases. Anyhow cases tend to be in areas that have a larger population. Has nothing to do with political affiliation or rule following.

Mg

like the two below you

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